IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v31y2013icp151-159.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decomposing time-frequency relationship between producer price and consumer price indices in Romania through wavelet analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Tiwari, Aviral Kumar
  • Mutascu, Mihai
  • Andries, Alin Marius

Abstract

This study analyses Granger-causality between the return series of CPI and PPI (i.e., inflation measured by CPI and PPI) for Romania, by using monthly data covering the period of 1991m1 to 2011m11. To analyse the issue in depth, this study decomposes the time-frequency relationship between CPI- and PPI-based inflation through a continuous wavelet approach. Our results provide strong evidence that there are cyclical effects from variables (as variables are observed in phase), while anti-cyclical effects are not observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai & Andries, Alin Marius, 2013. "Decomposing time-frequency relationship between producer price and consumer price indices in Romania through wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 151-159.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:31:y:2013:i:c:p:151-159
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.11.057
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999312004154
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.11.057?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Soares, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 645-655, May.
    2. Daniela Gabor, 2008. "From Rhetorics to Practice in Monetary Policy: A Romanian Perspective," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 50(3), pages 511-534, September.
    3. Daianu, Daniel & Kallai, Ella, 2008. "Disinflation and Inflation Targeting in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 59-81, March.
    4. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal, 2012. "Does CPI Granger-cause WPI? New extensions from frequency domain approach in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1592-1597.
    5. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Margarita Katsimi & Nikitas Pittis, 2002. "Causality Links between Consumer and Producer Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 703-711, January.
    7. Alexander Mihailov & Fabio Rumler & Johann Scharler, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics in the New EU Member States: How Relevant Are External Factors?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 65-76, February.
    8. Gregory D. Hess & Mark E. Schweitzer, 2000. "Does wage inflation cause price inflation?," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr.
    9. Jon Faust & Dale W. Henderson, 2004. "Is inflation targeting best-practice monetary policy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Jul), pages 117-144.
    10. Colclough, William G. & Lange, Mark D., 1982. "Empirical evidence of causality from consumer to wholesale prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 379-384, August.
    11. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Liu, Zheng, 2005. "Inflation targeting: What inflation rate to target?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1435-1462, November.
    12. Nikolay Nenovsky & Patrick Villieu, 2011. "EU enlargement and monetary regimes from the insurance model perspective," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 433-447, May.
    13. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2012. "An empirical investigation of causality between producers' price and consumers' price indices in Australia in frequency domain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1571-1578.
    14. Frömmel, Michael & Garabedian, Garo & Schobert, Franziska, 2011. "Monetary policy rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the exchange rate matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 807-818.
    15. Mehra, Yash P, 1991. "Wage Growth and the Inflation Process: An Empirical Note," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 931-937, September.
    16. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
    17. Roman Horváth & Jakub Matějů, 2011. "How Are Inflation Targets Set?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 265-300, June.
    18. Frederick T. Furlong & Robert Ingenito, 1996. "Commodity prices and inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 27-47.
    19. Marcelo Sanchez, 2011. "Modelling Anti-inflationary Monetary Targeting in Romania," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 125-145.
    20. Todd E. Clark, 1995. "Do producer prices lead consumer prices?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 80(Q III), pages 25-39.
    21. Todd E. Clark, 1999. "The Responses Of Prices At Different Stages Of Production To Monetary Policy Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 420-433, August.
    22. S. Brock Blomberg & Ethan S. Harris, 1995. "The commodity-consumer price connection: fact or fable?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 1(Oct), pages 21-38.
    23. Subrata Ghatak & Tomoe Moore, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules for Transition Economies: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 714-728, November.
    24. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2012. "Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 178-191.
    25. Jones, J D, 1986. "Consumer Prices, Wholesale Prices, and Causality (More Empirical Evidence for the U.S., 1947-1983.)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 41-55.
    26. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Azevedo, Nuno & Soares, Maria Joana, 2008. "Using wavelets to decompose the time–frequency effects of monetary policy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2863-2878.
    27. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2012. "Causality between wholesale price and consumer price indices in India," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(2), pages 151-172, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Suresh K.G., & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "Causality between consumer price and producer price: Evidence from Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 432-440.
    2. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2013. "Modelling the Relationship between Whole Sale Price and Consumer Price Indices: Cointegration and Causality Analysis for India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 14(3), pages 397-411, September.
    3. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2012. "An empirical investigation of causality between producers' price and consumers' price indices in Australia in frequency domain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1571-1578.
    4. Ülke, Volkan & Ergun, Ugur, 2013. "The Relationship between Consumer Price and Producer Price Indices in Turkey," MPRA Paper 59437, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal, 2012. "Does CPI Granger-cause WPI? New extensions from frequency domain approach in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1592-1597.
    6. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.
    7. Yusuf V. Topuz & Hassan Yazdifar & Sunil Sahadev, 2018. "The relation between the producer and consumer price indices: a two-country study," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(3), pages 122-130, June.
    8. Mohd, Rafede & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Testing the asymmetric and lead-lag relationship between CPI and PPI: an application of the ARDL and NARDL approaches," MPRA Paper 112500, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Kwon, Dae-Heum & Koo, Won W., 2013. "Price Transmission Mechanism among Disaggregated Processing Stages of Food: Demand-Pull or Cost-Push?," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 35(5), pages 1-17, January.
    10. Kai-Yin Woo & Shu-Kam Lee & Cho-Yiu Joe Ng, 2018. "An Investigation Into The Dynamic Relationship Between Cpi And Ppi: Evidence From The Uk, France And Germany," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1081-1100, July.
    11. Williams Corey J. M., 2023. "Unraveling Producer Price Inflation Pass-Through: Quantification, Structural Breaks, and Causal Direction," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, January.
    12. George, Edward I. & Sun, Dongchu & Ni, Shawn, 2008. "Bayesian stochastic search for VAR model restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 553-580, January.
    13. Niclas Andrén & Lars Oxelheim, 2011. "Exchange rate regime shift and price patterns," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 153-178, April.
    14. Jing Sun & Jinhui Xu & Xin Cheng & Jichao Miao & Hairong Mu, 2023. "Dynamic causality between PPI and CPI in China: A rolling window bootstrap approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1279-1289, April.
    15. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "U.S. shale oil production and WTI prices behaviour," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 12-19.
    16. Brad E. Strum, 2010. "Inflation persistence, backward-looking firms, and monetary policy in an input-output economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Bilgili, Faik & Mugaloglu, Erhan & Koçak, Emrah, 2018. "The impact of oil prices on CO2 emissions in China: A Wavelet coherence approach," MPRA Paper 90170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Özmen, M. Utku & Yılmaz, Erdal, 2017. "Co-movement of exchange rates with interest rate differential, risk premium and FED policy in “fragile economies”," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 173-188.
    19. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    20. Robert Lehmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2017. "Inflation is Returning! More and More Firms in Germany Plan to Increase Prices," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(05), pages 16-21, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Producer Price Index; Consumer Price Index; Time-frequency analysis; Non-stationary time-series; Wavelets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:31:y:2013:i:c:p:151-159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.