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A Panel Data Investigation Of Realexchange Rate Misalignment And Growth

  • FLAVIO VILELA VIEIRA

    (UFU)

  • RONALD MACDONALD

    (UNIVERSITY OF GLASGOW, UK)

The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (using fixed and random effects) for the real exchange rate, with different model specifications, in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. We also provide an alternative set of estimates of real exchange rate misalignment using panel cointegration methods. The variables used in our real exchange rate models are: real per capita GDP; net foreign assets; terms of trade and government consumption. The results for the two-step System GMM panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated) real exchange rate helps (harms) long-run growth. The estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.

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Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 014.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:anp:en2010:014
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