IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Panel non stationary tests of the Fisher hypothesis in a world wide context. An analysis of 114 economies during the period 1960-2004

  • Helmut Herwartz
  • Hans-Eggert Reimers

In this paper we follow an empirical approach to examine the implications of the Fisher hypothesis, namely cointegration linking interest rates and in°ation, and stationarity of the real interest rate implying in turn homogeneity of the potential equilibrium relation. The considered sample is an unbalanced panel and comprises monthly time series data from more than 100 economies covering at most a period of about 45 years. In total more than 31000 observations enter our empirical analysis. From cross sectional error correction and dynamic OLS regressions we ¯nd that the parameters of the dynamic relation depend on economic conditions like the level of in°ation or in°ation uncertainty. Moreover, our results indicate that from a world wide perspective the (average) Fisher coe±cient is less than unity. Applying panel unit root and cointegration tests indicate that interest rates and in°ation are cointegrated.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/journals1/aeid/aeid633.pdf
Download Restriction: Access restricted to subscribers. Free on line subscription for universities from low income countries. More information at http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages:

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:6:y:2006:i:3_3
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm

Order Information: Web: http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Is the Fisher Effect for Real? A Reexamination of the Relationship Between Inflation and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 3632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
  5. Frederic S. Mishkin & John Simon, 1994. "An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9410, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  6. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  7. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
  8. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  9. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1995. "Estimation and Inference in Nearly Unbalanced, Nearly Cointegrated Systems," Cahiers de recherche 9534, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  10. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  11. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I.
  12. Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-18, February.
  13. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  14. Martin D.D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Working Papers 93-06, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  15. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. V�gh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
  16. Rapach, David E. & Weber, Christian E., 2004. "Are real interest rates really nonstationary? New evidence from tests with good size and power," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 409-430, September.
  17. Christophe Hurlin & Valérie Mignon, 2007. "Second Generation Panel Unit Root Tests," Working Papers halshs-00159842, HAL.
  18. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Hypothesis," Working Papers 2005:10, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  19. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
  20. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
  21. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  22. Koustas, Z., Serletis, A., 1998. "On the Fisher Effect," Papers 98-09, Calgary - Department of Economics.
  23. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:1:p:1-21 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
  25. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  26. Driffill, John & Snell, Andrew, 2003. " What Moves OECD Real Interest Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 375-402, June.
  27. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  28. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:6:y:2006:i:3_3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.