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The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: Myth or reality?

  • Balázs Égert

    ()

  • Imed Drine
  • Kirsten Lommatzsch
  • Christophe Rault

This paper studies the Balassa-Samuelson effect in 9 CEECs . Using panel cointegration techniques, we find strong empirical evidence in favour of what we call the internal transmission mechanism since productivity growth in the open sector is found to bring about non-tradable inflation. However, we also shed new light on the fact that the impact of the internal transmission mechanism on overall inflation is considerably attenuated by the low share of non-tradables in the consumer price index. Furthermore, we argue that because of this and the high share of food items and regulated prices, the CPI may be misleading when analysing the Balassa-Samuelson effect. The paper also shows that the appreciation of the transition economies' real exchange rate, which has become something of a stylised fact over the last decade is only partly caused not the Balassa-Samuelson effect. Instead, we argue that a trend increase in tradable prices is behind this phenomenon.

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Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 483.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2002-483
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  1. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1996. "Relative Labour Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Jose De Gregorio & Thomas Krueger & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "The Behavior of Nontradable Goods Prices in Europe; Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 93/45, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  4. Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Tober, Silke, 2002. "Monetary policy aspects of the enlargement of the Euro area," Research Notes 4, Deutsche Bank Research.
  5. Peter Havlik & Michael Landesmann & Robert Stehrer, 2001. "Competitiveness of CEE Industries: Evidence From Foreign Trade Specialization and Quality Indicators," wiiw Research Reports 278, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  6. Menzie David Chinn, 1998. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 31, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  7. Laszlo Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "Economic Transformation and Real Exchange Rates in the 2000s: The Balassa-Samuelson Connection," ECE Discussion Papers Series 2001_1, UNECE.
  8. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
  9. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  10. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  11. Égert, Balázs, 2002. "Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in transition: Do we understand what we see?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  12. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Wolf, Holger C., 1994. "International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1225-1244, June.
  13. Balázs Egert, 2002. "Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in the transition: Do we understand what we see? A panel study," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 273-309, July.
  14. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Egert, Balazs, 2002. "Estimating the impact of the Balassa-Samuelson effect on inflation and the real exchange rate during the transition," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-16, April.
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