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The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: Myth or reality?

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  • Bal??zs ??gert

    ()

  • Imed Drine
  • Kirsten Lommatzsch
  • Christophe Rault

Abstract

This paper studies the Balassa-Samuelson effect in 9 CEECs . Using panel cointegration techniques, we find strong empirical evidence in favour of what we call the internal transmission mechanism since productivity growth in the open sector is found to bring about non-tradable inflation. However, we also shed new light on the fact that the impact of the internal transmission mechanism on overall inflation is considerably attenuated by the low share of non-tradables in the consumer price index. Furthermore, we argue that because of this and the high share of food items and regulated prices, the CPI may be misleading when analysing the Balassa-Samuelson effect. The paper also shows that the appreciation of the transition economies' real exchange rate, which has become something of a stylised fact over the last decade is only partly caused not the Balassa-Samuelson effect. Instead, we argue that a trend increase in tradable prices is behind this phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Bal??zs ??gert & Imed Drine & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Christophe Rault, 2002. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: Myth or reality?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 483, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2002-483
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Willem H. Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2002. "Anchor, float or abandon ship: exchange rate regimes for the accession countries," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(221), pages 111-142.
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    4. Balàzs Ègert, 2003. "Nominal and real convergence in Estonia: the Balassa-Samuelson (Dis)connection," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2003-4, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2003.
    5. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    6. Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Tober, Silke, 2002. "Monetary policy aspects of the enlargement of the Euro area," Research Notes 4, Deutsche Bank Research.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balassa-Samuelson effect; Panel cointegration; Transition economies; EMU;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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