IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofitp/bdp2002_008.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand

Author

Listed:
  • Fischer, Christoph

Abstract

The Balassa-Samuelson effect is usually seen as the prime explanation of the continuous real appreciation of central and east European (CEE) transition countries' currencies against their western counterparts.The response of a small country's real exchange rate to various shocks is derived in a simple model.It is shown that productivity shocks work not only through a Balassa-type supply channel but also through an investment demand channel. Therefore, empirical evidence apparently in favour of Balassa-Samuelson effects may require a re-interpretation.The model is estimated for a panel of CEE countries.The results are consistent with the model, plausibly explain the observed real appreciation and support the existence of the proposed investment demand channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Fischer, Christoph, 2002. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2002, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2002_008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212506/1/bofit-dp2002-008.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in transition countries: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 144-162, June.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    3. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    5. Nouriel Roubini & Paul Wachtel, 1997. "Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies," Working Papers 97-03, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    6. Jonathan D. Ostry, 1991. "Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries: Initial Trade Distortions and Imported Intermediate Inputs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 447-479, September.
    7. Brock, Philip L & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1994. "The Dependent-Economy Model with Both Traded and Nontraded Capital Goods," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 306-325, October.
    8. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Wolf, Holger C., 1994. "International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1225-1244, June.
    9. Menzie Chinn & Louis Johnston, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," NBER Working Papers 5709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
    11. Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács, 1999. "Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 1999/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    12. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Richards, Anthony J. & Tersman, Gunnar H. R., 1996. "Growth, Nontradables, and Price Convergence in the Baltics," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 121-145, October.
    14. Bruno, Michael, 1976. "The Two-Sector Open Economy and the Real Exchange Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 566-577, September.
    15. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 309-362, June.
    16. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688, Elsevier.
    17. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    18. Annika Alexius & Jonny Nilsson, 2000. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 383-397, October.
    19. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    20. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2001. "PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: The Role of the Distribution Sector," IMF Working Papers 2001/038, International Monetary Fund.
    21. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    22. Strauss, Jack, 1999. "Productivity differentials, the relative price of non-tradables and real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 383-409.
    23. De Broeck, Mark & Sloek, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    24. repec:zbw:bofitp:2002_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 2001/056, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Robert G. Murphy, 1989. "Stock Prices, Real Exchange Rates, and Optimal Capital Accumulation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 102-129, March.
    27. Strauss, Jack, 1996. "The cointegrating relationship between productivity, real exchange rates and purchasing power parity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 299-313.
    28. Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Traded Goods Consumption Smoothing and the Random Walk Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 10(2), pages 1-29, November.
    29. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
    30. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May.
    31. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    32. Stein, Jerome L., 1990. "The real exchange rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 1045-1078, November.
    33. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
    34. Arellano, M, 1987. "Computing Robust Standard Errors for Within-Groups Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(4), pages 431-434, November.
    35. Darvas, Zsolt, 2001. "Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    36. Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "Sectoral Productivity, Government Spending and Real Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 6017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey, 1982. "Towards an Explanation of National Price Levels," NBER Working Papers 1034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. DeLoach, Stephen B, 2001. "More Evidence in Favor of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 336-342, May.
    39. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1984. "Why Are Services Cheaper in the Poor Countries?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 279-286, June.
    40. Stephen B. DeLoach, 2001. "More Evidence in Favor of the Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 336-342, May.
    41. Laszlo Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "Economic Transformation and Real Exchange Rates in the 2000s: The Balassa-Samuelson Connection," ECE Discussion Papers Series 2001_1, UNECE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2002_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jaanus Raim, 2004. "The Alternative to the Existing System of the Concepts about Purchasing Power Parity Deviations . Derived from the Estonian Experience," Working Papers 115, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology.
    4. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    5. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Dramane Coulibaly, 2014. "The impact of market regulations on intra-European real exchange rates," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 529-556, August.
    6. García Solanes José, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Central and Eastern European Countries. Why the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Does Not Explain the Whole Story," Working Papers 2010100, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
    7. Égert, Balázs, 2004. "Assessing equilibrium exchange rates in CEE acceding countries: can we have DEER with BEER without FEER? A critical survey of the literature," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    8. Robert J. Sonora & Josip Tica, 2014. "Harrod, Balassa, and Samuelson (re)visit Eastern Europe," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17, December.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kakkar, Vikas & Yan, Isabel, 2014. "Determinants of real exchange rates: : An empirical investigation," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    11. Kakkar, Vikas & Yan, Isabel, 2014. "Determinants of real exchange rates: An empirical investigation," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    12. José García Solanes & Fernando Torrejón Flores, "undated". "Testing the BalassA-Samuelson hypothesis in two different groups of countries: OECD and Latin America," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 05-02, FEDEA.
    13. Jorge Carrera & Romain Restout, 2008. "Long Run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Latin America," Post-Print halshs-00276402, HAL.
    14. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
    16. Égert, Balázs, 2004. "Assessing equilibrium exchange rates in CEE acceding countries: can we have DEER with BEER without FEER? A critical survey of the literature," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    17. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    18. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2016. "The Penn Effect Revisited: New Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 70593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Lenarčič, Črt & Masten, Igor, 2020. "Is there a Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect? New panel data evidence from 28 European countries," MPRA Paper 100647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Fischer, Christoph, 2004. "PPP: a Disaggregated View," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Megumi Kubota, "undated". "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers 09/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
    23. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2013. "Real exchange rate adjustment in European transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 907-926.
    24. Vikas Kakkar, 2003. "The Relative Price of Nontraded Goods and Sectoral Total Factor Productivity: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 444-452, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2002_008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofitfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.