Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary
This paper investigates the different sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Hungary. We consider the effect of tradable pricing behavior and nominal rigidities in tradable real-exchange rate movements, and investigate the importance of relative productivity changes between the tradable and nontradable sector in relative price (nontradable/tradable) adjustments. We formulate a policy reaction function to separate the effect of tradable pricing shocks from policy shocks. The framework we use is a two sector open economy real exchange rate model. Its contemporaneous structure is used for the identification of structural shocks. Since the effect of policy shocks on tradable real exchange rate was not significant, our results suggest that nominal rigidities did not play an important role during the period under consideration. The evolution of nontradable prices and relative (nontradable/tradable) prices were well explained by nontradable output shocks. Thus, the Balassa-Samuelson-effect seems to have been at work in Hungary during the first eight years of transition.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996.
"Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?,"
NBER Working Papers
5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
- LÃ¡szlÃ³ Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997.
"Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
- Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
- Szapary, Gyorgy & Jakab, Zoltan M., 1998. "Exchange Rate Policy in Transition Economies: The Case of Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 691-717, December.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
- KornÃ©lia KrajnyÃ¡k & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998.
"Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 309-362, June.
- KornÃ©lia KrajnyÃ¡k & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1997. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies; What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Working Papers 97/149, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:1999/6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maja Bajcsy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.