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Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary

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  • Zoltán M. Jakab

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Mihály András Kovács

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

This paper investigates the different sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Hungary. We consider the effect of tradable pricing behavior and nominal rigidities in tradable real-exchange rate movements, and investigate the importance of relative productivity changes between the tradable and nontradable sector in relative price (nontradable/tradable) adjustments. We formulate a policy reaction function to separate the effect of tradable pricing shocks from policy shocks. The framework we use is a two sector open economy real exchange rate model. Its contemporaneous structure is used for the identification of structural shocks. Since the effect of policy shocks on tradable real exchange rate was not significant, our results suggest that nominal rigidities did not play an important role during the period under consideration. The evolution of nontradable prices and relative (nontradable/tradable) prices were well explained by nontradable output shocks. Thus, the Balassa-Samuelson-effect seems to have been at work in Hungary during the first eight years of transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács, 1999. "Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 1999/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:1999/6
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/wp1999-6.pdf
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    1. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    2. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    4. Szapary, Gyorgy & Jakab, Zoltan M., 1998. "Exchange Rate Policy in Transition Economies: The Case of Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 691-717, December.
    5. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
    6. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 309-362, June.
    7. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Willem H. Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2002. "Anchor, float or abandon ship: exchange rate regimes for the accession countries," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(221), pages 111-142.
    2. Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Sources of inflation and output movements in Poland and Hungary: Policy implications for accession to the economic and monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 107-131, March.
    3. Willem H. Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2002. "Ancorare, fluttuare o abbandonare la nave:i regimi valutari dei paesi candidati all' Unione Europea," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 55(218), pages 127-164.
    4. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
    5. García Solanes José, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Central and Eastern European Countries. Why the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Does Not Explain the Whole Story," Working Papers 2010100, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
    6. Buiter, Willem H. & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Anchor, Float or Abandon Ship: Exchange Rate Regimes for Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Guorong Jiang & Peter Doyle & Louis Kuijs, 2001. "Real Convergence to EU Income Levels; Central Europe From 1990 to the Long Term," IMF Working Papers 01/146, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    9. De Broeck, Mark & Sloek, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Jaanus Raim, 2004. "The Alternative to the Existing System of the Concepts about Purchasing Power Parity Deviations . Derived from the Estonian Experience," Working Papers 115, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology.
    11. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 353, European Central Bank.
    12. Monika Blaszkiewicz & Przemek Kowalski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2004. "Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Selected Countries of Central and Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0057, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    13. Paul Cavelaars, 2002. "The Timing of EU Expansion and the Real Exchange Rate," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-3, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
    14. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
    15. P.A.D. Cavelaars, 2003. "The Timing of EU Expansion and the Real Exchange Rate," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 89, Netherlands Central Bank.

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