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Real Convergence to EU Income Levels: Central Europe From 1990 to the Long Term

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Guorong Jiang
  • Mr. Peter Doyle
  • Louis Kuijs

Abstract

The paper discusses factors likely to shape the nature and pace of economic growth of five Central European transition countries now engaged in accession to the European Union. It is organized around the standard growth accounting framework. The paper reviews the growth of these countries since 1990 and draws lessons from the growth experiences of other regions since the 1950s, shedding light on long-term growth prospects for these countries. It discusses a set of growth calculations and highlights the key uncertainties in them.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Guorong Jiang & Mr. Peter Doyle & Louis Kuijs, 2001. "Real Convergence to EU Income Levels: Central Europe From 1990 to the Long Term," IMF Working Papers 2001/146, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2001/146
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. De Broeck, Mark & Sloek, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
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    6. International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 2001/056, International Monetary Fund.
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    8. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Sandra Moatti, 2003. "Les PECO devant la tentation de l'euro," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 93, pages 11-36.
    2. Heather Gibson & Jim Malley, 2008. "The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greece," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 629-650, November.
    3. �kos Dombi, 2013. "The sources of economic growth and relative backwardness in the Central Eastern European countries between 1995 and 2007," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 425-447, December.
    4. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Economakis, George & Milios, John G. & Maroudas, Leonidas & Aggelis, Vassilis, 2005. "Growth, Technological Change and Output Gap in Russia," MPRA Paper 74479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Biljana Petkovska, 2008. "Estimation of the investment function for the Republic of Macedonia," Working Papers 2008-04, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    6. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in central Europe: a disaggregated analysis," BIS Working Papers 143, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Krkoska, Libor & Teksoz, Utku, 2007. "Accuracy of GDP growth forecasts for transition countries: Ten years of forecasting assessed," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 29-45.
    8. Emília Zimková & Jaroslav Barochovský, 2007. "Odhad potenciálneho produktu a produkčnej medzery v slovenských podmienkach [Estimation of potential product and output gap in slovak conditions]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(4), pages 473-489.
    9. Alina F. Klein & Rudolf F. Klein, 2017. "Currency Undervaluation and Economic Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(7), pages 69-85, July.
    10. E.Tsanana & C. Katrakilidis, 2016. "The issue of convergence: New empirical evidence for the Central Eastern Europe area," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1), pages 53-62.
    11. Petrevski, Goran & Gockov, Gjorgji & Makreshanska-Mladenovska, Suzana, 2016. "Determinants of real convergence in Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 74655, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Oct 2016.
    12. Monga, Celestin, 2004. "Latvia's macroeconomic options in the medium term : fiscal and monetary challenges of European Union membership," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3307, The World Bank.
    13. Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks, 2016. "Catching up in Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(4), pages 319-340.
    14. Eftychia Tsanana & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2014. "Do Balkan economies catch up with EU? New evidence from panel unit root analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 641-662, November.
    15. Katrin Olenko, 2004. "Sustainability of the Estonian macroeconomic performance in the light of the EU membership," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 41, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    16. Marcin Piatkowski, 2004. "Does ICT Investment Matter for Growth and Labor Productivity in Transition Economies?," Development and Comp Systems 0402008, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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