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Determinants of real convergence in Central and Eastern Europe

Author

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  • Petrevski, Goran
  • Gockov, Gjorgji
  • Makreshanska-Mladenovska, Suzana

Abstract

This paper deals with the process of convergence of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries towards the EU and attempts to identify the main driving factors behind this process. In these regards, we first provide an overview of the real convergence through an analysis of several economic variables – rate of approximation of real GDP per capita and price levels, trade integration, harmonization of the economic structure and achievements in the labor market. In addition, we offer a formal econometric evidence on the main determinants of the convergence process, based on a panel data for 10 CEE countries during 2000-2015 period, estimated with fixed effects. The results of our study imply that higher savings and investment ratio, higher labour productivity, more efficient labour markets (lower unemployment) and macroeconomic stability (lower inflation and lower budget deficits) are conducive to real convergence. However, quite surprisingly, we find that the close trade integration with the EU is associated with lower level of real convergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Petrevski, Goran & Gockov, Gjorgji & Makreshanska-Mladenovska, Suzana, 2016. "Determinants of real convergence in Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 74655, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Oct 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74655
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74655/1/MPRA_paper_74655.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Galor, Oded, 1996. "Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1056-1069, July.
    2. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    3. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "Economic Growth and Convergence across The United States," NBER Working Papers 3419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Miron, Dumitru & Dima, Alina & Paun, Cristian, 2009. "A model for assessing Romania's real convergence based on distances and clusters methods," MPRA Paper 31410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Clement van de Coevering, 2003. "Structural convergence and monetary integration in Europe," MEB Series (discontinued) 2003-20, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
    6. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2010. "Real convergence in the new Member States of the European Union (Shorter and longer term prospects)," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 229-253, June.
    7. Vladimir Lavrac & Tina Zumer, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes of CEE Countries on the way to the EMU: Nominal Convergence, Real Convergence and Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp15, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Jun 2003.
    8. Guorong Jiang & Peter Doyle & Louis Kuijs, 2001. "Real Convergence to EU Income Levels; Central Europe From 1990 to the Long Term," IMF Working Papers 01/146, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real convergence; Central and Eastern Europe; European Union; Panel data models; Fixed-effects estimator.;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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