Ancorare, fluttuare o abbandonare la nave:i regimi valutari dei paesi candidati all' Unione Europea
The paper considers alternative exchange rate regimes for the East European accession candidates, both prior to EU accession and following EU accession but prior to EMU membership. We conclude that, from an economic point of view, EMU membership should be as early as possible. There is, however, a risk that prevailing interpretations of the inflation and exchange rate criteria for EMU membership could lead to unnecessary delays in EMU membership for the accession countries. The exchange rate criterion for EMU membership requires that the candidate "has respected the normal fluctuation margins provided for by the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System without severe tensions for at least the last two years before the examination." Both this text and the precedents of Finland, Italy and Greece, support the view that the exchange rate criterion can be satisfied without two years of formal ERM II membership. Insistence on at least two years of formal ERM II membership for the accession countries would result in an unnecessary, costly and potentially risky stay in EMU purgatory.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000.
"Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-34, May.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1997. "Financial fragility and the exchange rate regime," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Working Papers 98-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Currency boards: More than a quick fix?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 269-335, October.
- Calvo, Guillermo A & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Optimal Inflation Tax under Precommitment: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 179-94, March.
- De Broeck, Mark & Sloek, Torsten, 2001. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Willem H. Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2001.
"Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries,"
Chapters in SUERF Studies,
SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
- Willem Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2001. "Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 287-318.
- Willem H. Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2001. "Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 11 edited by Morten Balling, November.
- Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács, 1999. "Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 1999/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
- Samuelson, Paul A, 1994. "Facets of Balassa-Samuelson Thirty Years Later," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 201-26, October.
- Heston, Alan & Nuxoll, Daniel A & Summers, Robert, 1994. "The Differential-Productivity Hypothesis and Purchasing-Power Parties: Some New Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 227-43, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:psl:moneta:2002:22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carlo D'Ippoliti)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.