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Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries

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  • Annika Alexius
  • Jonny Nilsson

Abstract

In an extended Balassa–Samuelson model, long-run real exchange rates are determined by relative productivity and terms of trade. We present evidence of systematic long-run relationships between these fundamental variables and real exchange rates in a data set covering 15 OECD countries from 1960 to 1996. High relative productivity is associated with real exchange rate appreciations in most cases. There is less support for the hypothesis that the terms of trade affect equilibrium real exchange rates. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Suggested Citation

  • Annika Alexius & Jonny Nilsson, 2000. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 383-397, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:11:y:2000:i:4:p:383-397 DOI: 10.1023/A:1008378610758
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sellin, Peter, 2007. "Using a New Open Economy Macroeconomics model to make real nominal exchange rate forecasts," Working Paper Series 213, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    2. Celine Gauthier & David Tessier, 2002. "Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Canadian Evidence," Staff Working Papers 02-31, Bank of Canada.
    3. Anna Larsson, 2004. "The Swedish real exchange rate under different currency regimes," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), pages 706-727.
    4. Manuela Nenna, 2001. "Price Level Convergence among Italian Cities: Any Role for the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis?," Working Papers 64, Sapienza University of Rome, CIDEI.
    5. Bergvall, Anders, 2002. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Nordic Countries," Working Paper Series 2002:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    6. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), pages 179-210.
    7. Yihui Lan, 2003. "The Long-Term Behaviour of Exchange Rates, Part II: Aspects of Exchange-Rate Economics," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 03-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    8. Jaanus Raim, 2004. "The Alternative to the Existing System of the Concepts about Purchasing Power Parity Deviations . Derived from the Estonian Experience," Working Papers 115, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology.
    9. Fat Codruta Maria & Dezsi Eva, 2011. "Exchange-Rates Forecasting: Exponential Smoothing Techniques And Arima Models," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 499-508, July.
    10. Anders Bergvall, 2004. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Nordic Countries," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 315-337, June.
    11. Pham Van Ha & Tom Kompas, 2008. "Productivity and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Supporting the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis through an ‘Errors in Variables’ Analysis," International and Development Economics Working Papers idec08-03, International and Development Economics.
    12. Lindblad, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2006. "A Simultaneous Model of the Swedish Krona, the US Dollar and the Euro," Working Paper Series 193, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    13. Masao Ogaki & Sungwook Park, 2007. "Long-run real exchange rate changes and the properties of the variance of k-differences," Working Papers 07-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Alexius, Annika, 2000. "Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper Series 117, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

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