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Long-run real exchange rate changes and the properties of the variance of k-differences

  • Masao Ogaki

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Ohio State University)

  • Sungwook Park

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Ohio State University)

Engel (1999) computes the variance of k-differences for each time horizon us- ing the method of Cochrane (1988) in order to measure the importance of the traded goods component in U.S. real exchange rate movements. The importance of traded goods should decrease as the horizon increases if the law of one price holds for traded goods in the long run. However, Engel ?nds that the variance of k-di¤erences decreases only initially and then increases as k approaches the sample size. He interpets the increasing variance as evidence of an increase in the long-run importance of the traded goods component. By contrast, we show that the variance of k-di¤erences tends to return to the initial value as k approaches the sample size whether the variable is stationary or unit root nonstationary. Our results imply that the increasing variances for k-values close to the sample size cannot be inter- preted as evidence of an increase in the importance of the traded goods component in the long run. We ?nd that our test results regarding the variance of k-di¤erences are consistent with smaller importance of the traded goods component in the longer run.

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File URL: http://www.econ.ohio-state.edu/pdf/ogaki/wp07-05.pdf
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Paper provided by Ohio State University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 07-05.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:osu:osuewp:07-05
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  1. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June.
  2. Kakkar, Vikas & Ogaki, Masao, 1999. "Real exchange rates and nontradables: A relative price approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 193-215, April.
  3. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2004. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 10986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Burstein, Ariel & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2006. "The importance of nontradable goods' prices in cyclical real exchange rate fluctuations," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 247-253, August.
  5. Ariel T. Burstein & Joao C. Neves & Sergio Rebelo, 2000. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based-Stabilizations," NBER Working Papers 7862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Deo, Rohit S. & Richardson, Matthew, 2003. "On The Asymptotic Power Of The Variance Ratio Test," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 231-239, April.
  7. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  9. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  10. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  11. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "The Size and Power of the Variance Ratio Test in Finite Samples: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
  13. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  14. Cai, Ye & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2006. "On The Alternative Long-Run Variance Ratio Test For A Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(03), pages 347-372, June.
  15. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2005. "U.S. Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Relative Price Fluctuations," IEPR Working Papers 05.16, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  16. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "Persistence in Law-of-One-Price Deviations: Evidence from Micro-data," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000311, UCLA Department of Economics.
  17. Yixiao Sun & Peter C. B. Phillips & Sainan Jin, 2008. "Optimal Bandwidth Selection in Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(1), pages 175-194, 01.
  18. David C. Parsley, 2001. "Accounting for Real Exchange Rate Changes in East Asia," Working Papers 062001, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  19. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," NBER Working Papers 11521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November.
  21. Mario Crucini & Chris Telmer & Marios Zachariadis, . "Understanding European Real Exchange Rates," GSIA Working Papers 227, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  22. Alan M. Taylor & Mark Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Working Papers 46, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  23. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "A New Asymptotic Theory For Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(06), pages 1130-1164, December.
  24. Annika Alexius & Jonny Nilsson, 2000. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 383-397, October.
  25. Jaebeom Kim, 2005. "Convergence Rates to Purchasing Power Parity for Traded and Nontraded Goods: A Structural Error-Correction Model Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 76-86, January.
  26. Bernd Schnatz & Focco Vijsellaar & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Productivity and the Euro-Dollar exchange rate," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(1), pages 1-30, March.
  27. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  28. Masao Ogaki & Jaebeom Kim, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity for Traded and Non-traded Goods: A Structural Error Correction Model Approach," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 515, Econometric Society.
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