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Further Evidence on PPP Adjustment Speeds: the Case of Effective Real Exchange Rates and the EMS

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  • Ivan Paya
  • Ioannis A. Venetis
  • David A. Peel

Abstract

Two different approaches intend to resolve the 'puzzling' slow convergence to purchasing power parity (PPP) reported in the literature [see Rogoff (1996), "Journal of Economic Literature", Vol. 34.] On the one hand, there are models that consider a non-linear adjustment of real exchange rate to PPP induced by transaction costs. Such costs imply the presence of a certain transaction band where adjustment is too costly to be undertaken. On the other hand, there are models that relax the 'classical' PPP assumption of constant equilibrium real exchange rates. A prominent theory put together by Balassa (1964, "Journal of Political Economy", Vol. 72) and Samuelson (1964 "Review of Economics and Statistics", Vol. 46), the BS effect, suggests that a non-constant real exchange rate equilibrium is induced by different productivity growth rates between countries. This paper reconciles those two approaches by considering an exponential smooth transition-in-deviation non-linear adjustment mechanism towards non-constant equilibrium real exchange rates within the EMS (European Monetary System) and effective rates. The equilibrium is proxied, in a theoretically appealing manner, using deterministic trends and the relative price of non-tradables to proxy for BS effects. The empirical results provide further support for the hypothesis that real exchange rates are well described by symmetric, nonlinear processes. Furthermore, the half-life of shocks in such models is found to be dramatically shorter than that obtained in linear models. Copyright 2003 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Paya & Ioannis A. Venetis & David A. Peel, 2003. "Further Evidence on PPP Adjustment Speeds: the Case of Effective Real Exchange Rates and the EMS," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 421-437, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:65:y:2003:i:4:p:421-437
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    Cited by:

    1. I Paya & D Peel, 2005. "Temporal aggregation of an ESTAR process," Working Papers 565938, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    2. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2004. "Nonlinear Ppp Under The Gold Standard," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-24, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    3. McMillan, David G., 2009. "The confusing time-series behaviour of real exchange rates: Are asymmetries important?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 692-711, October.
    4. Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2005. "The process followed by PPP data. On the properties of linearity tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2515-2522.
    5. Arno Tausch & Almas Heshmati, 2012. "Migration, Openness and the Global Preconditions of "Smart Development"," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 1-62.
    6. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2013. "Real exchange rate adjustment in European transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 907-926.
    7. Liu, Lin & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Jiang, Chun, 2013. "Real interest rate parity in East Asian countries based on China with flexible Fourier stationary test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 52-58.
    8. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Carlyn Dobson, 2011. "Inflation persistence: Implication for a monetary union in the Caribbean," Working Papers 2011017, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    9. David A. Peel & Ivan Paya, 2006. "Temporal aggregation of an ESTAR process: some implications for purchasing power parity adjustment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 655-668.
    10. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Chowdhury, Ibrahim, 2010. "Asymmetry dynamics in real exchange rates: New results on East Asian currencies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 648-661, October.
    11. Apergis, Nicholas & Cooray, Arusha, 2015. "Asymmetric interest rate pass-through in the U.S., the U.K. and Australia: New evidence from selected individual banks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 155-172.
    12. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hu, Yu-Hau, 2009. "New evidence on nominal exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1045-1063, October.
    13. Lin, Jeng-Bau & Liang, Chin-Chia & Yeh, Ming-Liang, 2011. "Examining nonlinear dynamics of exchange rates and forecasting performance based on the exchange rate parity of four Asian economies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 79-85, March.
    14. Arusha Cooray, 2009. "Is the adjustment to real interest rate parity asymmetric?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 407-418, November.
    15. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2005. "A New Analysis Of The Determinants Of The Real Dollar-Sterling Exchange Rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers. Serie AD 2005-16, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    16. Soubarna Pal, 2011. "Productivity Differential and Bilateral Real Exchange Rate between India and US," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 146-155.
    17. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hegerty, Scott W. & Kutan, Ali M., 2009. "Is PPP sensitive to time-varying trade weights in constructing real effective exchange rates?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 1001-1008, August.
    18. Pavlidis Efthymios G & Paya Ivan & Peel David A, 2010. "Specifying Smooth Transition Regression Models in the Presence of Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-40, May.
    19. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Carlyn Ramlogan-Dobson, 2013. "Convergence of Inflationary Shocks: Evidence from the Caribbean," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1229-1243, September.
    20. Grossmann, Axel & McMillan, David G., 2010. "Forecasting exchange rates: Non-linear adjustment and time-varying equilibrium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 436-450, October.
    21. Tausch, Arno, 2016. "‘Smart development’. An essay on a new political economy of the environment," MPRA Paper 70204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Chang, Tsangyao & Yang, Ming-Hsien & Yang, Hong-Lǜe, 2016. "Revisiting real interest rate parity in BRICS countries using ADL test for threshold cointegration," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 86-89.
    23. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan & Su Zhou, 2009. "Towards solving the PPP puzzle: evidence from 113 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(24), pages 3057-3066.
    24. Smallwood, Aaron D., 2008. "Measuring the persistence of deviations from purchasing power parity with a fractionally integrated STAR model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1161-1176, November.
    25. E Pavlidis & I Paya & D Peel, 2009. "Forecasting the Real Exchange Rate using a Long Span of Data. A Rematch: Linear vs Nonlinear," Working Papers 601190, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

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