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Using a New Open Economy Macroeconomics model to make real nominal exchange rate forecasts

  • Sellin, Peter


    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

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    In this paper we undertake an out-of-sample evaluation of the ability of a model to forecast the Swedish Krona’s real and nominal effective exchange rate, using a cointegrating relation between the real exchange rate, relative output, terms of trade and net foreign assets (or alternatively the trade balance). The cointegrating relation is derived from a theoretical model of the New Open Economy Macroeconomics type. The forecasting performance of our estimated vector error correction model is quite good once the dynamics of the model have been augmented with an interest rate differential.

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    Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 213.

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    Length: 32 pages
    Date of creation: 01 Oct 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0213
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
    Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
    Fax: 08-21 05 31
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    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S, 2005. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt4f63x50j, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    3. Ph.R. Lane & G.M. Milesi-Ferretti, 2003. "External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 80, Netherlands Central Bank.
    4. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
    5. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 062000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    6. Philip Lane, 2007. "The Swedish external position and the krona," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 263-279, November.
    7. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    8. Annika Alexius & Jonny Nilsson, 2000. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 383-397, October.
    9. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
    10. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    11. Jesper Lindé, 2004. "Swedish Postwar Business Cycles: Generated Abroad or at Home?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(4), pages 623-645, December.
    12. Lindblad, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2003. "The Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment and the Real Exchange Rate: An Unobserved Components System Approach," Working Paper Series 152, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    13. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    14. Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2008. "Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 2-13.
    15. West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    16. Kristian Nilsson, 2004. "Do Fundamentals Explain the Behaviour of the Swedish Real Effective Exchange Rate?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(4), pages 603-622, December.
    17. Bergvall, Anders, 2002. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Nordic Countries," Working Paper Series 2002:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
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