IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Harrod Balassa Samuelson effect and the role of distribution sector: an empirical case study of Serbia and EMU

  • Predrag Petrovic


    (Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia)

Registered author(s):

    This research aims to test the functionality of the standard and the modified HBS model, with the intention to discover whether sectoral differences in labor productivity affect the dinar/euro real exchange rate. The first part of the analysis is based on the standard HBS model, which mathematically formalizes the dependence of the real exchange rate on the difference in the relative labor productivity in the open sector between Serbia and the EMU. The second part of the research relies on a modified version of the HBS model which differs from the standard HBS model since the effect of the distribution sector is separately analyzed. The empirical testing of both models was performed by applying the Johansen and the Engle-Granger tests. The results obtained by analyzing the standard HBS model indicates that there is no reliable evidence based on which it can be concluded that either the difference in the relative labor productivity in the open sector between Serbia and the EMU translates onto the difference in the relative prices of non-tradable goods or that the difference in prices affects the real exchange rate of the dinar against the euro. Furthermore, the analysis of the modified HBS model does not affect the previous results. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that the real euro/dinar exchange rate is not determined solely by sectoral differences in labor productivity, and that in future perspective Serbia will not have to choose between the dynamic economic growth and the membership in the EMU.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics in its journal Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 30 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 57-87

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:30:y:2012:i:1:p:57-87
    Contact details of provider: Postal: p.p. 113, 51000 RIJEKA, Ivana Filipovica 4
    Phone: 0038551355111
    Fax: 0038551212268
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Ariel T. Burstein & Joao C. Neves & Sergio Rebelo, 2000. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based-Stabilizations," NBER Working Papers 7862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Rhee, Hyun-Jae, 1996. "Time-Series Support for Balassa's Productivity-Bias Hypothesis: Evidence from Korea," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 364-70, October.
    3. Paul Bergin & Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 10569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Traded Goods Consumption Smoothing and the Random Walk Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1988. "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics: A Selective Survey," NBER Working Papers 2775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Josip Tica & Ivo Družić, 2006. "The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect: A Survey of Empirical Evidence," EFZG Working Papers Series 0607, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    7. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in central Europe: a disaggregated analysis," BIS Working Papers 143, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Égert, Balázs, 2002. "Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in transition: Do we understand what we see?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    10. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-02, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    11. Holger C. Wolf & Alberto Giovannini & Jose De Gregorio, 1994. "International Evidenceon Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," IMF Working Papers 94/33, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    13. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
    15. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    16. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    17. Edison, Hali J & Klovland, Jan Tore, 1987. "A Quantitative Reassessment of the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Evidence from Norway and the United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 309-33, October.
    18. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May.
    19. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Systematic movements in real exchange rates in the G-5 : Evidence on the integration of internal and external markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 1023-1044, November.
    20. Egert, Balazs, 2002. "Estimating the impact of the Balassa-Samuelson effect on inflation and the real exchange rate during the transition," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-16, April.
    21. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1984. "Why Are Services Cheaper in the Poor Countries?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 279-86, June.
    22. Devereux, Michael B, 1999. "Real Exchange Rate Trends and Growth: A Model of East Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 509-21, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:30:y:2012:i:1:p:57-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antica Sergovic)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.