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Real and Monetary Convergence within the European Union and Between the European Union and Candidate Countries: A Rolling Cointegration Approach

  • Josef C. Brada

    ()

  • Ali M. Kutan

    ()

  • Su Zhou

    ()

We use rolling cointegration to measure the convergence of base money, M2, the consumer price index and industrial output between two reference countries, Germany and France, and recent EU members and some transition economy candidates. Counties that recently joined the EU exhibit time-varying cointegration with the reference countries over much of the 1980-2000 sample period. Cointegration for the transition economies was comparable for M2 and prices, but less so for monetary policy and industrial output. This suggests that a peg to the Euro upon accession is feasible for the East European candidates, but the benefits of joining the Euro zone are as yet limited.

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File URL: http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp458.pdf
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Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 458.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2002-458
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  1. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  2. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2001. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the Euro area and the CEECs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
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  4. Estrin, Saul & Urga, Giovanni & Lazarova, Stepana, 2001. "Testing for Ongoing Convergence in Transition Economies, 1970 to 1998," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 677-691, December.
  5. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September.
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  7. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
  8. Kocenda, Evzen, 1999. "Limited Macroeconomic Convergence in Transition Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Kirchgassner, Gebhard & Wolters, Jurgen, 1993. "Does the DM Dominate the Euro Market? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 773-78, November.
  10. Stanislava Janáčková & Josef C. Brada & Liana Payson, 2000. "Price Convergence and the Readiness of the Czech Economy for Accession to the European Union," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 38(4), pages 73-91, August.
  11. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  12. Rangvid, Jesper & Sørensen, Carsten, 2000. "Convergence in the ERM and declining numbers of common stochastic trends," Working Papers 2000-8, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
  13. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-87, February.
  14. van Giersbergen, Noud P A, 1996. "Bootstrapping the Trace Statistic in VAR Models: Monte Carlo Results and Applications," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 391-408, May.
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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