IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpif/0503009.html

The French-German Interest Rate Differential Since German

Author

Listed:
  • Jerome Henry

    (ECB)

  • Jens Weidmann

    (Bundesbank)

Abstract

We investigate the consequences of the 1992-1993 EMS crises, which resulted in the widening of the exchange rate bands, on the long-run linkages between the daily 1-month-Eurorates on German Mark, US-Dollar and French Franc. First, within a Gaussian VAR, both the US Eurorate and the French-German Eurorate differential are found stationary between December 1990 and December 1993. Second, using various GARCH models to account for heteroskedasticity show that Gaussian models can be misleading as to the interpretation of the linkages. Third, the estimated variance parameters are stable and the July 1993 episode is not linked to especially high a volatility. Finally, focusing on the French rate, we find asymmetry in the stochastic volatility, positive shocks being more persistent.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerome Henry & Jens Weidmann, 2005. "The French-German Interest Rate Differential Since German," International Finance 0503009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0503009
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 40. Has appeared as: University of Bonn (SFB303), Discussion Paper No. B-295
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/if/papers/0503/0503009.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alain Hecq, 1996. "IGARCH effect on autoregressive lag length selection and causality tests," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(5), pages 317-323.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    4. Karfakis, Costas J & Moschos, Demetrios M, 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 389-394, August.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    6. Hagen, Jurgen von & Fratianni, Michele, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS: evidence from interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 358-375, December.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    8. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
    11. Vlaar, Peter J G & Palm, Franz C, 1993. "The Message in Weekly Exchange Rates in the European Monetary System: Mean Reversion, Conditional Heteroscedasticity, and Jumps," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 351-360, July.
    12. Edward H. Gardner & William R. M. Perraudin, 1993. "Asymmetry in the ERM: A Case Study of French and German Interest Rates Before and After German Unification," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 427-450, June.
    13. Kim, Kiwhan & Schmidt, Peter, 1993. "Unit root tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 287-300, October.
    14. Mr. Francesco Caramazza, 1993. "French-German Interest Rate Differentials and Time-Varying Realignment Risk," IMF Working Papers 1993/001, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Pierse, R. G. & Snell, A. J., 1995. "Temporal aggregation and the power of tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 333-345, February.
    16. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-87, February.
    17. Thomas H. McCurdy & Ieuan G. Morgan, 1991. "Tests for a Systematic Risk Component in Deviations From Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 587-602.
    18. Francesco Caramazza, 1993. "French-German Interest Rate Differentials and Time-Varying Realignment Risk," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 567-583, September.
    19. Toru Konishi & Valerie A. Ramey & Clive W.J. Granger, 1993. "Stochastic Trends and Short-Run Relationships Between Financial Variables and Real Activity," NBER Working Papers 4275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Kirchgassner, Gebhard & Wolters, Jurgen, 1993. "Does the DM Dominate the Euro Market? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 773-778, November.
    21. repec:fth:sydnec:144 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-933, July.
    23. Juan Ayuso & M.P. Jurado & Fernando Restoy, 1994. "Is Exchange Rate Risk Higher in the E.R.M. after the Widening of Fluctuation Bands?," Working Papers 9419, Banco de España.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September.
    2. Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas & Prodromidis, Kyprianos, 1999. "Unit roots and Granger causality in the EMS interest rates: the German Dominance Hypothesis revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-73, January.
    3. Kremer, Manfred, 1999. "Die Kapitalmarktzinsen in Deutschland und den USA: Wie eng ist der Zinsverbund? Eine Anwendung der multivariaten Kointegrationsanalyse," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1999,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, . "Euro Dominance Hypothesis and Monetary Policy Independence - the Czech Perspective," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-16.
    5. Uctum, Merih, 1999. "European integration and asymmetry in the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 769-798, October.
    6. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, December.
    7. Zhou, Su, 2003. "Interest rate linkages within the European Monetary System: new evidence incorporating long-run trends," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 571-590, August.
    8. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2016. "Euro Dominance Hypothesis and Monetary Policy Independence the Czech Perspective," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(6), pages 655-670.
    9. A M Spiru, 2007. "Inflation convergence in the new EU member states," Working Papers 590260, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    10. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2009. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-30.
    11. Lau, Sau-Him Paul & Sin, Chor-Yiu, 1997. "Observational equivalence and a stochastic cointegration test of the neoclassical and Romer's increasing returns models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 39-60, January.
    12. Marco Barassi & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Stephen Hall, 2005. "Interest rate linkages: identifying structural relations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 977-986.
    13. N. T. Laopodis, 2003. "Stochastic behaviour of Deutsche mark exchange rates within EMS," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 665-676.
    14. repec:lan:wpaper:2442 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Crowder, William J. & Wohar, Mark E., 1998. "Cointegration, forecasting and international stock prices," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 181-204.
    16. repec:lan:wpaper:2440 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Arize, A. C., 1996. "Cointegration test of a long-run relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade in sixteen countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 203-215.
    18. Francisco Climent Diranzo & Robert Meneu Gaya, "undated". "Relaciones de equilibrio entre demografía y crecimiento económico en Espana," Studies on the Spanish Economy 163, FEDEA.
    19. repec:lan:wpaper:2522 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan & Su Zhou, 2002. "Real and Monetary Convergence within the European Union and Between the European Union and Candidate Countries: A Rolling Cointegration Approach," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 458, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    21. Bremnes, Helge & Gjerde, Oystein & Saettem, Frode, 1997. "A multivariate cointegration analysis of interest rates in the Eurocurrency market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 767-778, September.
    22. Barassi, Marco R. & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen G., 2005. "Interest rate linkages: a Kalman filter approach to detecting structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-284, March.
    23. Catherine Bruneau & Eric Jondeau, 1999. "Long‐run Causality, with an Application to International Links Between Long‐term Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 545-568, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0503009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask EconWPA to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.