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Linkage in EMS term structures: evidence from common trend and transitory components


  • Hafer, R. W.
  • Kutan, Ali M.
  • Su Zhou


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  • Hafer, R. W. & Kutan, Ali M. & Su Zhou, 1997. "Linkage in EMS term structures: evidence from common trend and transitory components," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 595-607, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:16:y:1997:i:4:p:595-607

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hess, Gregory D. & Porter, Richard D., 1993. "Comparing interest-rate spreads and money growth as predictors of output growth: Granger causality in the sense Granger intended," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 45(3-4), pages 247-268.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    4. Hafer, R W & Kutan, A M, 1994. "A Long-Run View of German Dominance and the Degree of Policy Convergence in the EMS," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 684-695, October.
    5. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
    7. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July.
    8. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1991. "Exchange Rates, Policy Convergence, and the European Monetary System," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 553-558, August.
    9. Karfakis, Costas J & Moschos, Demetrios M, 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 389-394, August.
    10. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
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    12. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    13. R. Sean Craig, 1991. "EMS interest rate differentials and fiscal policy: a model with an empirical application to Italy," International Finance Discussion Papers 405, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 93/19, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
    17. Clemens J. M. Kool & John A. Tatom, 1988. "International linkages in the term structure of interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 30-43.
    18. Horstmann, Winfried & Schneider, Friedrich, 1994. "Deficits, Bailout and Free Riders: Fiscal Elements of a European Constitution," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 355-383.
    19. Hagen, Jurgen von & Fratianni, Michele, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS: evidence from interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 358-375, December.
    20. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(4), pages 781-806, December.
    22. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    23. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-492, June.
    24. Adrian W. Throop, 1994. "International financial market integration and linkages of national interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-18.
    25. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January.
    26. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 51-144.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September.
    2. Haug Alfred A & Siklos Pierre L, 2006. "The Behavior of Short-Term Interest Rates: International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-34, December.
    3. Chang, Yoosoon & Isaac Miller, J. & Park, Joon Y., 2009. "Extracting a common stochastic trend: Theory with some applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 231-247, June.
    4. J. Isaac Miller & Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park, 2005. "Extracting a Common Stochastic Trend:Theories with Some Applications," Working Papers 0507, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 18 Aug 2005.
    5. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2005. "Term Structure Linkages Among the New EU Countries and the EMU," Working Papers 0515, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    6. Patel, Ajay & Shoesmith, Gary L., 2004. "Term structure linkages surrounding the Plaza and Louvre accords: Evidence from Euro-rates and long-memory components," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2051-2075, September.
    7. Josef Brada, Ali M. Kutan, 2002. "Balkan and Mediterranean Candidates for European Union Membership: The Convergence of Their Monetary Policy with That of the European Central Bank," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 31-44, July.
    8. Haug, Alfred A. & MacKinnon, James G. & Michelis, Leo, 2000. "European Monetary Union: a cointegration analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 419-432, June.
    9. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2008. "The term structure of interest rates in the 12 newest EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 479-490.
    10. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2003. "EU Enlargement: Are the New Countries Ready to Join the EMU?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 6-2003, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    11. Willie Lahari, 2010. "Permanent and Transitory Shocks among Pacific Island Economies - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1001, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2010.
    12. Bremnes, Helge & Gjerde, Oystein & Soettem, Frode, 2001. " Linkages among Interest Rates in the United States, Germany and Norway," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(1), pages 127-145, March.
    13. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2005. "The Term Structures of Interest Rates in the New and Prospective EU Countries," Working Papers 0505, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    14. ZHU Xiaoneng & Shahidur RAHMAN, 2009. "Global Yield Curves and Sovereign Bond Market Integration," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0902, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    15. A M Spiru, 2007. "Inflation convergence in the new EU member states," Working Papers 590260, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    16. Enrica Detragiache & A. Javier Hamann, 1999. "Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization In Western Europe: Greece, Ireland, Italy, And Portugal," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(3), pages 358-369, July.
    17. Chi-Sang Tam & Ip-Wing Yu, 2008. "Modelling sovereign bond yield curves of the US, Japan and Germany," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 82-91.
    18. Bhatti, Razzaque H., 2014. "The existence of uncovered interest parity in the CIS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.
    19. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2002. "Separation, Weak Exogeneity, And P-T Decomposition In Cointegrated Var Systems With Common Features," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 273-307.
    20. Vesile Kutlu & Nese Kavrukkoca, 2007. "Evaluating the Maastricht Convergence Criteria for New Prospective European Union Members," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 7(1), pages 13-26.

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