EU Enlargement: Are the New Countries Ready to Join the EMU?
This paper investigates empirically the extend to which the ten new countries of the current EU enlargement are ready to join the European Monetary Union (EMU). We assess the prospects of successful accession into the EMU using cointegration and common trends analysis on the nominal convergence criteria specified by the Maastricht Treaty as well as on real per capita GDPs. The empirical results indicate that the enlargement countries are partially ready to join the Eurozone, and need further adjustments in their government policies to be fully prepared for joining the EMU.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.ucy.ac.cy/econ/en|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Hafer, R. W. & Kutan, Ali M. & Su Zhou, 1997. "Linkage in EMS term structures: evidence from common trend and transitory components," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 595-607, August.
- Karfakis, C. J. & Moschos, D.M., 1990.
"Interest Rate Linkages Within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis,"
144, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Karfakis, Costas J & Moschos, Demetrios M, 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 389-94, August.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Taylor, Mark P, 1995.
"Macro-economic Shocks, the ERM, and Tri-polarity,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 321-31, May.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995.
"Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Gonzalo and Granger JBES 1995 paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00074, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1990.
"Exchange Rates, Policy Convergence and the European Monetary System,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
444, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1991. "Exchange Rates, Policy Convergence, and the European Monetary System," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 553-58, August.
- R Macdonald & M P Taylor, . "Exchange Rates, Policy Convergence And The European Monetary System," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 020, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Haug, Alfred A. & MacKinnon, James G. & Michelis, Leo, 2000. "European Monetary Union: a cointegration analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 419-432, June.
- repec:syd:wpaper:144 is not listed on IDEAS
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucy:cypeua:6-2003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.