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Macroeconomic Shocks, the ERM, and Tri-Polarity

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  • Bayoumi, Tamim
  • Taylor, Mark P

Abstract

We analyse the importance of ERM membership for macroeconomic performance by comparing the behaviour of real output growth and inflation of members and non-members of the ERM. Taking the traditional aggregate supply and demand model as the basis for the analysis, we propose and implement an econometric procedure for identifying aggregate demand and supply shocks. The results confirm that the ERM has acted as a vehicle for macroeconomic policy coordination among its members. We also investigate several issues relating to the notion of a `tri-polar' global economic system comprising Germany, Japan and the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayoumi, Tamim & Taylor, Mark P, 1992. "Macroeconomic Shocks, the ERM, and Tri-Polarity," CEPR Discussion Papers 711, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:711
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    Cited by:

    1. Pentecôte, J.-S., 2010. "Long-run identifying restrictions on VARs within the AS-AD framework," MPRA Paper 34660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Adolfo Maza, 2006. "Wage flexibility and the EMU: a nonparametric and semiparametric analysis for the Spanish case," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 733-736.
    3. Frenkel, Michael & Nickel, Christiane, 2005. "New European Union members on their way to adopting the Euro: An analysis of macroeconomic disturbances," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 303-320, February.
    4. George Tavlas, 1994. "The theory of monetary integration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 211-230, March.
    5. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2005. "Enlargement and Eurozone: Convergence or Divergence," Working Papers 0504, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    6. Binet, Marie-Estelle & Pentecôte, Jean-Sébastien, 2015. "Macroeconomic idiosyncrasies and European monetary unification: A sceptical long run view," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 412-423.
    7. Theptida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and International Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 338-361, April.
    8. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2003. "EU Enlargement: Are the New Countries Ready to Join the EMU?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 6-2003, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    9. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Estimating structural macroeconomic shocks through long-run recursive restrictions on vector autoregressive models: the problem of identification," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 229-244.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ERM; Macroeconomic Performance; Tri-polarity;

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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