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Macroeconomic idiosyncrasies and European monetary unification: A sceptical long run view

Listed author(s):
  • Marie-Estelle Binet

    ()

    (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte

    (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

This study questions the empirical assessment of asymmetries in currency areas based on structural vector auto-regressions that describe the price–output dynamics in reference to the Aggregate Supply–Aggregate Demand (AS–AD) diagram. Our contribution is both methodological and empirical. First, we propose a way to rotate the innovations resulting from the Bayoumi–Eichengreen (1992) decomposition of the VAR residuals to ensure that their properties remain identical to the properties of the well-known Blanchard–Quah (1989) factorization. In addition, we derive the slope coefficients of the AS–AD curves from the impulse responses to demand shocks and thereby reveal structural heterogeneities across countries. Second, we study fifteen euro and non-euro countries using quarterly data over 1960–2012. Bootstrap simulations reveal that: 1) the Bayoumi–Eichengreen decomposition yields the same conclusions as the Blanchard–Quah one in terms of shock sizes and asymmetry; 2) the long-run neutrality of demand shocks on output is often not decisive in assessing shock asymmetry; and 3) the estimated structural and stochastic asymmetries are imprecise, which has been often disregarded in the literature. Thus, one should be cautious about the empirical relevance of macroeconomic idiosyncrasies with regard to the suitability of a currency area.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-01238568.

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Date of creation: Dec 2015
Publication status: Published in Economic Modelling, Elsevier, 2015, 51, pp.412-423. <10.1016/j.econmod.2015.08.030>
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01238568
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.08.030
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01238568
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  3. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas J. Sargent & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 1021-1026, June.
  4. Rafiq, M.S. & Mallick, S.K., 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1756-1791, December.
  5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "Macroeconomic Adjustment under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton-Woods Float: An Impulse-Response Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(425), pages 813-827, July.
  6. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renée, 2009. "The identification of fiscal and monetary policy in a structural VAR," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1147-1160, November.
  7. Juvenal, Luciana, 2011. "Sources of exchange rate fluctuations: Are they real or nominal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 849-876, September.
  8. Paul De Grauwe, 2006. "What Have we Learnt about Monetary Integration since the Maastricht Treaty?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44, pages 711-730, November.
  9. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
  10. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Magginas, Nicholas S., 2006. "Forward-looking information in VAR models and the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1225-1234, September.
  11. Bayoumi, Tamim & Taylor, Mark P, 1995. "Macro-economic Shocks, the ERM, and Tri-polarity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 321-331, May.
  12. Pagan, A.R. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2008. "Econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3376-3395, October.
  13. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-Seung & Summers, Peter M., 2000. "Structural Identification of Permanent Shocks in VEC Models: A Generalization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 53-68, January.
  14. Heilemann, Ullrich & Findeis, Hagen, 2012. "Empirical determination of aggregate demand and supply curves: The example of the RWI Business Cycle Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 158-165.
  15. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Koh, Sharon G.M., 2012. "The prospects of a monetary union in East Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 96-102.
  16. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Bruneau, Catherine & De Bandt, Olivier, 2003. "Monetary and fiscal policy in the transition to EMU: what do SVAR models tell us?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 959-985, September.
  18. John W. Keating, 2013. "Interpreting Permanent Shocks to Output When Aggregate Demand May Not Be Neutral in the Long Run," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 747-756, 06.
  19. Pieter Omtzigt & Stefano Fachin, 2006. "The Size and Power of Bootstrap and Bartlett-Corrected Tests of Hypotheses on the Cointegrating Vectors," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 41-60.
  20. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2011. "On the feasibility of monetary union: Does it make sense to look for shocks symmetry across countries when none of the countries constitutes an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2701-2718.
  21. Soren Johansen, 2002. "A Small Sample Correction for the Test of Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1929-1961, September.
  22. Funke, Michael, 1997. "How important are demand and supply shocks in explaining German business cycles?: New evidence on an old debate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-37, January.
  23. Pentecôte, Jean-Sébastien & Huchet-Bourdon, Marilyne, 2012. "Revisiting the core-periphery view of EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2382-2391.
  24. Cover, James P. & Mallick, Sushanta K., 2012. "Identifying sources of macroeconomic and exchange rate fluctuations in the UK," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1627-1648.
  25. Cover, James Peery & Enders, Walter & Hueng, C. James, 2006. "Using the Aggregate Demand-Aggregate Supply Model to Identify Structural Demand-Side and Supply-Side Shocks: Results Using a Bivariate VAR," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 777-790, April.
  26. Ribba, Antonio, 1997. "A note on the equivalence of long-run and short-run identifying restrictions in cointegrated systems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 273-276, November.
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  28. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:747-756 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Bergman, U Michael, 1999. " Do Monetary Unions Make Economic Sense? Evidence from the Scandinavian Currency Union, 1873-1913," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 363-377, September.
  30. Braun, Phillip A. & Mittnik, Stefan, 1993. "Misspecifications in vector autoregressions and their effects on impulse responses and variance decompositions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 319-341, October.
  31. Cooley, Thomas F. & Dwyer, Mark, 1998. "Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 57-88.
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