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Macro-economic Shocks, the ERM, and Tri-polarity

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  • Bayoumi, Tamim
  • Taylor, Mark P

Abstract

The authors use the comparative behavior of real output growth and inflation behavior of members and nonmembers of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) to analyze the importance of ERM membership on macroeconomic performance. An econometric procedure for identifying temporary and permanent shocks to output is proposed and executed. The results confirm that the ERM has acted as a vehicle for macropolicy coordination between members. The authors also investigate several issues relating to the hypothesis of global economic 'tri-polarity' between the United States, Germany, and Japan. Copyright 1995 by MIT Press.

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  • Bayoumi, Tamim & Taylor, Mark P, 1995. "Macro-economic Shocks, the ERM, and Tri-polarity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 321-331, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:77:y:1995:i:2:p:321-31
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    Cited by:

    1. Frenkel, Michael & Nickel, Christiane, 2005. "New European Union members on their way to adopting the Euro: An analysis of macroeconomic disturbances," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 303-320, February.
    2. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2005. "Enlargement and Eurozone: Convergence or Divergence," Working Papers 0504, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    3. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte, 2010. "Long-run identifying restrictions on VARs within the AS-AD framework," Post-Print halshs-00554867, HAL.
    4. Theptida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and International Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 338-361, April.
    5. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2003. "EU Enlargement: Are the New Countries Ready to Join the EMU?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 6-2003, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    6. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Bok, Tomas, 2001. "The European Monetary Union: were there alternatives to the ECB?: A quantitative evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 775-806, October.
    7. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Estimating structural macroeconomic shocks through long-run recursive restrictions on vector autoregressive models: the problem of identification," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 229-244.
    8. Kigabo-Rusuhuzwa, Thomas & Heshmati, Almas, 2022. "Are the East African Community's Countries Ready for a Common Currency?," IZA Discussion Papers 15210, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Shigeyuki Hamori & Naoko Hamori, 2011. "An empirical analysis of real exchange rate movements in the euro," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(10), pages 1187-1191.
    10. Liam Gallagher, 1999. "A multi-country analysis of the temporary and permanent components of stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 129-142.
    11. George Tavlas, 1994. "The theory of monetary integration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 211-230, March.
    12. Weimann, Marco, 2002. "OCA theory and EMU eastern enlargement: An empirical application," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/02, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    13. Liam A. Gallagher & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices: Evidence from Assessing Macroeconomic Shocks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 345-362, October.
    14. Binet, Marie-Estelle & Pentecôte, Jean-Sébastien, 2015. "Macroeconomic idiosyncrasies and European monetary unification: A sceptical long run view," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 412-423.
    15. Adolfo Maza, 2006. "Wage flexibility and the EMU: a nonparametric and semiparametric analysis for the Spanish case," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 733-736.
    16. Hallwood, Paul & Marsh, Ian W. & Scheibe, Jorg, 2006. "An assessment of the case for monetary union or official dollarization in five Latin American countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 52-66, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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