Term Structure Linkages Among the New EU Countries and the EMU
This paper uses cointegration and common trends techniques to investigate empirically the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates in the 10 new EU countries, and the 2 core EMU countries, France and Germany. By decomposing each term structure into its transitory and permanent components, we also analyze the possible short run and long run linkages among the term structures of these countries. The empirical results support the expectations theory of the term structure for all countries except Malta. Further, they point to both weak short run linkages and several strong long run linkages among the monetary policies of the 10 new EU and the core of the EMU. The group of the Central European countries and Latvia are prominent in the latter case.
|Date of creation:||00 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Gallos - Rethymno 74100|
Phone: +30 831 77405
Fax: +30 831 77406
Web page: http://economics.soc.uoc.gr/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995.
"The Term Structure of Euro-Rates: Some Evidence in Support of the Expectations Hypothesis,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1258, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April.
- Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1995. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," BIS Working Papers 28, Bank for International Settlements.
- Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration,"
96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
- James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995.
"Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Gonzalo and Granger JBES 1995 paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00074, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Holmes, Mark J & Pentecost, Eric J, 1997. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Financial Integration in the ERM," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 237-47, July.
- Hafer, R. W. & Kutan, Ali M. & Su Zhou, 1997. "Linkage in EMS term structures: evidence from common trend and transitory components," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 595-607, August.
- Jondeau, Eric & Ricart, Roland, 1999. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: tests on US, German, French, and UK Euro-rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 725-750, October.
- Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crt:wpaper:0515. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kostis Pigounakis)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.