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Estimating the Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rate for Potential EMU members

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  • Nikolaos Giannellis
  • Athanasios Papadopoulos

    (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece)

Abstract

In this study, we attempt to examine the possibility of emergence of significant fluctuations of the exchange rates in the future for the candidate EMU countries. In doing so, we estimate the equilibrium rate of the nominal effective exchange rate for Poland, Hungary, Slovak Republic and Malta through the BEER and PEER approaches. While the PEER-based estimation implies a large misalignment rate for the Hungarian forint, the BEER-based analysis shows that the present exchange rates of the countries considered do not deviate significantly from their equilibrium rates. As a consequence, based on BEER analysis, we do not expect large fluctuations in the effective exchange rates among the currencies considered. Hence, the relevant effective exchange rates are expected to be relatively stable. As a matter of fact, the entry of those countries into EMU is not expected to weaken the stability of Euro. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios Papadopoulos, 2007. "Estimating the Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rate for Potential EMU members," Working Papers 0719, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:crt:wpaper:0719
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Cointegration; BEER; PEER;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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