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A Long-Run View of German Dominance and the Degree of Policy Convergence in the EMS

Author

Listed:
  • Hafer, R W
  • Kutan, A M

Abstract

A preliminary for European monetary union is convergence of the European Monetary System's members' policies. Using a cointegration framework with short-term interest rates and monetary bases as monetary policy measures, the authors find policy convergence has not occurred. Nor, contrary to popular beliefs, does the Bundesbank dominate other members' policies. Although the Bundesbank is influential, substantial policy interaction occurs among almost all the European Monetary System countries examined. Finally, the credibility argument, that pegged exchange rate systems constrain and discipline monetary policymakers behavior, is undermined by the authors' findings. Copyright 1994 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Hafer, R W & Kutan, A M, 1994. "A Long-Run View of German Dominance and the Degree of Policy Convergence in the EMS," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 684-695, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:32:y:1994:i:4:p:684-95
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Holmes & Yangru Wu, 1997. "Capital controls and covered interest parity in the EU: Evidence from a panel-data unit root test," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(1), pages 76-89, March.
    2. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2011. "The Global Financial Crisis and Stochastic Convergence in the Euro Area," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 315-333, August.
    3. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2004. "Export market integration in the European Union," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 7, pages 271-301, November.
    4. Joseph Daniels & David VanHoose, 1998. "Two-Country Models of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: What Have We Learned? What More Can We Learn?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 265-284, July.
    5. repec:kap:ecopln:v:50:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10644-017-9208-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Haug, Alfred A. & MacKinnon, James G. & Michelis, Leo, 2000. "European Monetary Union: a cointegration analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 419-432, June.
    7. Minoas Koukouritakis, 2016. "Eurozone Debt Crisis and Bond Yields Convergence: Evidence from the New EU Countries," Working Papers 1606, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    8. Taufiq Choudhry, 2002. "Money-Income Relationships between Three ERM Countries," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 5, pages 59-94, May.
    9. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2008. "The term structure of interest rates in the 12 newest EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 479-490.
    10. Arakelian, Veni & Moschos, Demetrios, 2008. "Modeling pairwise convergence: A Bayesian approach with an application to Greek inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 340-344, May.
    11. Selahattin Dibooglu & Julius Horvath, 1997. "Optimum Currency Areas And European Monetary Unification," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(1), pages 37-49, January.
    12. Mentz, Markus & Sebastian, Steffen P., 2003. "Inflation convergence after the introduction of the Euro," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/30, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    13. Aroskar, Raj & Sarkar, Salil K. & Swanson, Peggy E., 2004. "European foreign exchange market efficiency: Evidence based on crisis and noncrisis periods," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 333-347.
    14. Heejoon Kang, 1999. "The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 325-346, July.
    15. Bley, Jorg, 2009. "European stock market integration: Fact or fiction?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 759-776, December.
    16. Michael Bowe & Nikolaos Mylonidis, 1999. "Is the European Capital Market Ready for the Single Currency?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1-2), pages 1-32.
    17. Crowder, William J. & Phengpis, Chanwit, 2007. "A re-examination of international inflation convergence over the modern float," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 125-139, April.
    18. Hafer, R. W. & Kutan, Ali M. & Su Zhou, 1997. "Linkage in EMS term structures: evidence from common trend and transitory components," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 595-607, August.
    19. Yasuo Nishiyama, 2008. "German leadership: evidence from retail mortgage rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1167-1170.
    20. Consuelo Gámez Amián & Amalia Morales Zumaquero., 2002. "Complete or Partial Inflation Convergence in the EU?," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/09, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    21. Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2008. "Is there a connection between monetary unification and real economic integration? Evidence from regime-switching stationarity tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 958-970, October.
    22. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:3:p:315-333 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Mark Holmes, 2000. "The Velocity of Circulation: Some new evidence on international integration," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 449-459.
    24. Holmes, Mark J., 2001. "Some new evidence on exchange rates, capital controls and European Union financial integration," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 135-146.
    25. Mark Holmes, 1998. "Inflation Convergence in the ERM: Evidence for Manufacturing and Services," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16.

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