The Yield Curve and Real Activity
This paper attempts to formalize the link between the yield curve and real economic activity. A closed-form formula for the term structure of interest rates is derived. The paper then documents the use of bond market data for predicting GDP growth in the G-7 industrial countries. The results suggest that a simple measure of the slope of the yield curve, namely the yield spread, serves as a good predictor of future economic growth. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the yield spread compares favorably with that of the alternative stock price--based model and a univariate time series (ARMA) model.
Volume (Year): 40 (1993)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/41308/PS2|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:40:y:1993:i:4:p:781-806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.