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The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: What is the Effect of European Union Enlargement?

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  • JOHN LEWIS
  • KARSTEN STAEHR

Abstract

According to the Maastricht Treaty, a country seeking to join the European Monetary Union cannot have an inflation rate in excess of 1.5 per cent plus the average inflation rates in the three ‘best performing’ EU countries. This inflation reference value is a non‐increasing function of the number of EU members. A counterfactual analysis of historical data shows that the effect of enlarging the EU from 15 to 27 countries was sizeable in 2002–04 and again from 2007. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the enlargement of the EU from 15 to 27 members reduces the inflation reference value by 0.15–0.2 percentage points on average, but there is a considerable probability of a larger reduction at any given moment of time. The treatment of countries with negative inflation rates in the calculation of the reference value has a major impact on the results.

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  • John Lewis & Karsten Staehr, 2010. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion: What is the Effect of European Union Enlargement?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 687-708, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:48:y:2010:i:3:p:687-708
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5965.2010.02069.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo Rovelli, 2011. "Two Suggestions for the Future of the Eurozone," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(02), pages 55-62, July.
    2. Calzada, Joan & Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2023. "Conflicting national policies: The creation of the euro and the rebalancing of telecommunications prices," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    3. Zsolt Darvas, 2010. "The case for reforming euro area entry criteria," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 32(2), pages 195-219, December.
    4. Torój, Andrzej & Bednarek, Elżbieta & Bęza-Bojanowska, Joanna & Osińska, Joanna & Waćko, Katarzyna & Witkowski, Dariusz, 2012. "EMU: the (post-)crisis perspective. Literature survey and implications for the euro-candidates," MF Working Papers 12, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 06 Mar 2012.
    5. Stojanović Ivana, 2019. "The Impact of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union on the General Price Level of Countries that Joined in the Period from 2004 to 2007," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 57(2), pages 233-255, June.
    6. Adrian Petre, 2016. "The Analysis of the Nominal Convergence in the New Member States of the European Union," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(61), pages 245-254, September.
    7. Karsten Staehr, 2016. "Exchange Rate Policies in the Baltic States: From Extreme Inflation to Euro Membership," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(04), pages 09-18, January.
    8. TRIANDAFIL, Cristina Maria, 2013. "Sustainability of convergence in the context of macro-prudential policies in the European Union," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 130618, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).

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