The Maastricht inflation criterion : what is the effect of expansion of the European Union ?
Following the Maastricht criteria, a country seeking to join the European Monetary Union cannot have inflation in excess of 1.5 percent plus the average inflation in the three "best performing" EU countries. This inflation reference value is a non-increasing function of the number of EU members. Looking backwards, the effect of increasing the number of EU countries from 15 to 27 would have been sizeable in 2003 and 2004, but relatively modest since 2005. Monte Carlo simulations show that the expansion of the EU from 15 to 27 members reduces the expected inflation reference value by 0.15-0.2 percentage points, but with a considerable probability of a larger reduction. The treatment of countries with negative inflation in the calculation of the reference value has a major impact on the results
|Date of creation:||14 Sep 2007|
|Date of revision:||14 Sep 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.bankofestonia.info
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Estonia bld. 13, 15095 Tallinn, ESTONIA|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Lewis, 2007.
"Hitting and Hoping? Meeting the Exchange Rate and Inflation Criteria during a Period of Nominal Convergence,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1902, CESifo Group Munich.
- Lewis, John, 2009. "Hitting and hoping?: Meeting the exchange rate and inflation criteria during a period of nominal convergence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 508-524, December.
- John Lewis, 2007. "Hitting and Hoping? Meeting the Exchange Rate and Inflation Criteria During a Period of Nominal Convergence," DNB Working Papers 130, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Jonas, Jiri, 2006. "Euro adoption and Maastricht criteria: Rules or discretion?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 328-345, December.
- Peter B. Kenen & Ellen E. Meade, 2003. "EU Accession and the Euro: Close Together or Far Apart?," Policy Briefs PB03-09, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Charles Wyplosz, 2006. "European Monetary Union: the dark sides of a major success," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 207-261, 04.
- Balázs Égert & Imed Drine & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Christophe Rault, 2005.
"The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Central and Eastern Europe: Myth or Reality?,"
Documents de recherche
05-15, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
- Egert, Balazs & Drine, Imed & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Rault, Christophe, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: myth or reality?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 552-572, September.
- Balázs Égert & Imed Drine & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Christophe Rault, 2002. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: Myth or reality?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 483, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Calmfors, Lars & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Devereux, Michael P. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Saint-Paul, Gilles & Sinn, Hans-Werner & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Vives, Xavier, 2007. "The EEAG Report on the European Economy 2007," Munich Reprints in Economics 20006, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Buiter, Willem H., 2004. "To Purgatory and Beyond: When and How Should the Accession Countries from Central and Eastern Europe Become Full Members of EMU?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4342, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dobrinsky, Rumen, 2006. "Catch-up inflation and nominal convergence: The balancing act for new EU entrants," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 424-442, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2007-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peeter Luikmel)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.