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Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New Eu Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?

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  • Ms. Katerina Smídková
  • Jan Babecky
  • Mr. Ales Bulir

Abstract

The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions are expected to continue to experience appreciation during 2010-2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt. Our estimates point to somewhat larger disequilibria than those of IMF country teams, however, any estimates of equilibrium exchange rates are subject to sizable uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Katerina Smídková & Jan Babecky & Mr. Ales Bulir, 2010. "Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New Eu Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?," IMF Working Papers 2010/198, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/198
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    Cited by:

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    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201510131420 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL & Florina PINZARU & Mihaela DINU & Laurentiu-Mihai TREAPAT, 2014. "Fixing the Central Parity and the Evolution of the Currency within the Exchange Rate Mechanism II in the Countries that Joined the Euro Zone," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 2(4), pages 21-40, April.
    5. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb12/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb11/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Konov, Joshua Ioji, 2012. "Market Economy under Rapid Globalization and Rising Productivity," MPRA Paper 48750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Michal Franta & Jozef Baruník & Roman Horváth & Katerina Smídková, 2014. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful? The Effect of Zero Lower Bound and Evaluation of Financial Stability Stress Tests," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 159-188, March.
    9. Viktors Ajevskis & Ramune Rimgailaite & Uldis Rutkaste & Olegs Tkacevs, 2012. "The Assesment of Equilibrium Real Echange Rate of Latvia," Working Papers 2012/04, Latvijas Banka.
    10. Sophocles Vogiazas & Constantinos Alexiou, 2013. "Liquidity And The Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence From The Greek Banking Sector," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 58(199), pages 109-126, October -.
    11. Iršová, Zuzana & Havránek, Tomáš, 2013. "Determinants of Horizontal Spillovers from FDI: Evidence from a Large Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-15.
    12. Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL & Laurentiu-Mihai TREAPAT, 2015. "Main Economic Policies in order to Manage an Optimum Accession of Romania to the Euro Zone," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 151-169, March.
    13. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb12/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Boero, Gianna & Mavromatis, Kostas & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real exchange rates and transition economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 23-35.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; country-specific FDI elasticity; FDI inflow; Foreign direct investment; new EU member states; sustainable exchange rates; debt target; SRER estimate; IMF team; FDI elasticity; SRER projection; computed SRER interval; elasticity of export; nontradable-sector FDI; Real exchange rates; Trade balance; Exports; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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