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Growth and crisis in transition : a comparative perspective

  • Fabrizio Coricelli

    ()

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, CEPR - Centre for Economic Policy Research)

  • Mathilde Maurel

    ()

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)

The paper provides an empirical analysis of the growth performance of transition countries in a comparative perspective, separating episodes of crises from those of growth. Performance is measured by the output response following recessions, rather than average rates of growth that aggregate periods of recessions and periods of growth. Results highlight significant differences between transition and non-transition countries, and heterogeneity within the transition group. Distinguishing the performance following the so-called "transitional recession" from that of "normal recessions", the analysis allows separating the role of initial conditions, pre-transition, from the effects determined by the economic structure that emerged after the launch of market reforms. The post-recession behavior of output in Central-Eastern Europe resembles that of emerging and developing countries in the aftermath of banking and financial crises, often following significant liberalizations. In contrast, the post-crisis performance of CIS countries resembles the output response observed during episodes of civil wars, and remains significantly different from the normal response of an average market country. Therefore, the ability to rebound after a crisis is a key element of the growth performance of different transition countries. Furthermore, we distinguish three components of the growth performance associated to a crisis, namely the capacity to rebound, the depth and the lenght of the crisis. We observe that such performance depends on economic reforms and especially on the complementarities among different reforms.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00469327.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00469327
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