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Growth and crisis in transition: a comparative perspective

  • Fabrizio Coricelli


    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Centre for Economic Policy Research)

  • Mathilde Maurel


    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

The paper provides an empirical analysis of the growth performance of transition countries in a comparative perspective, separating episodes of crises from those of growth. Performance is measured by the output response following recessions, rather than average rates of growth that aggregate periods of recessions and periods of growth. Results highlight significant differences between transition and non-transition countries, and heterogeneity within the transition group. Distinguishing the performance following the so-called "transitional recession" from that of "normal recessions", the analysis allows separating the role of initial conditions, pre-transition, from the effects determined by the economic structure that emerged after the launch of market reforms. The post-recession behavior of output in Central-Eastern Europe resembles that of emerging and developing countries in the aftermath of banking and financial crises, often following significant liberalizations. In contrast, the post-crisis performance of CIS countries resembles the output response observed during episodes of civil wars, and remains significantly different from the normal response of an average market country. Therefore, the ability to rebound after a crisis is a key element of the growth performance of different transition countries. Furthermore, we distinguish three components of the growth performance associated to a crisis, namely the capacity to rebound, the depth and the lenght of the crisis. We observe that such performance depends on economic reforms and especially on the complementarities among different reforms.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00469327.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Publication status: Published in Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2010.20 - ISSN : 1955-611X. 2010
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00469327
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  1. Chadha, Bankim & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 1997. "Fiscal constraints and the speed of transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 221-249, February.
  2. Abdul Abiad & Enrica Detragiache & Thierry Tressel, 2010. "A New Database of Financial Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 281-302, June.
  3. Nicola Cetorelli & Michele Gambera, 1999. "Banking Market Structure, Financial Dependence and Growth: International Evidence from Industry Data," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-19, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
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  7. Nauro F. Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 470, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  8. Campos, Nauro F & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 2009. "Financial Liberalization and Democracy: The Role of Reform Reversals," IZA Discussion Papers 4338, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Lone Engbo Christiansen & Thierry Tressel & Martin Schindler, 2009. "Growth and Structural Reforms; A New Assessment," IMF Working Papers 09/284, International Monetary Fund.
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  11. Campos, Nauro F & Hsiao, Cheng & Nugent, Jeffrey B, 2006. "Crises, What Crises?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Babetskii, Ian & Campos, Nauro F, 2007. "Does Reform Work? An Econometric Examination of the Reform-Growth Puzzle," IZA Discussion Papers 2638, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
  14. Pitlik, Hans & Wirth, Steffen, 2003. "Do crises promote the extent of economic liberalization?: an empirical test," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 565-581, September.
  15. Allan Drazen & William Easterly, 2001. "Do Crises Induce Reform? Simple Empirical Tests of Conventional Wisdom," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 129-157, 07.
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