IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/hal-00643309.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Growth and crisis in transition: A comparative perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Mathilde Maurel

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Fabrizio Coricelli

    (CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The paper provides an empirical analysis of the growth performance of transition countries in a comparative perspective, separating episodes of crises from those of growth. Performance is measured by the output response following recessions, rather than average rates of growth that aggregate periods of recessions and periods of growth. Results highlight significant differences between transition and non-transition countries, and heterogeneity within the transition group. Distinguishing the performance following the so-called "transitional recession" from that of "normal recessions", the analysis allows separating the role of initial conditions, pre-transition, from the effects determined by the economic structure that emerged after the launch of market reforms. The post-recession behavior of output in Central-Eastern Europe resembles that of emerging and developing countries in the aftermath of banking and financial crises, often following significant liberalizations. In contrast, the post-crisis performance of CIS countries resembles the output response observed during episodes of civil wars, and remains significantly different from the normal response of an average market country. Therefore, the ability to rebound after a crisis is a key element of the growth performance of different transition countries. We observe that such performance depends on economic reforms and especially on the complementarities among different reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathilde Maurel & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2011. "Growth and crisis in transition: A comparative perspective," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00643309, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-00643309
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2010.00931.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giavazzi, Francesco & Tabellini, Guido, 2005. "Economic and political liberalizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1297-1330, October.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2007_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    4. Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 283-330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Chadha, Bankim & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 1997. "Fiscal constraints and the speed of transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 221-249, February.
    6. Jorge Braga de Macedo & Joaquim Oliveira Martins, 2006. "Growth, reform indicators and policy complementarities," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp484, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    7. Nicola Cetorelli & Michele Gambera, 2001. "Banking Market Structure, Financial Dependence and Growth: International Evidence from Industry Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 617-648, April.
    8. Allan Drazen & William Easterly, 2001. "Do Crises Induce Reform? Simple Empirical Tests of Conventional Wisdom," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 129-157, July.
    9. Ian Babetskii & Nauro Campos, 2006. "Does Reform Work? An Econometric Examination of the Reform-Growth Puzzle," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp870, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    10. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2008/224, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Parente, Stephen L. & Prescott, Edward C., 2005. "A Unified Theory of the Evolution of International Income Levels," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1371-1416, Elsevier.
    12. Abdul Abiad & Enrica Detragiache & Thierry Tressel, 2010. "A New Database of Financial Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 281-302, June.
    13. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
    14. Christiansen, Lone & Schindler, Martin & Tressel, Thierry, 2013. "Growth and structural reforms: A new assessment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 347-356.
    15. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Campos, Nauro, 2009. "Financial liberalization and democracy: The role of reform reversals," CEPR Discussion Papers 7393, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Pitlik, Hans & Wirth, Steffen, 2003. "Do crises promote the extent of economic liberalization?: an empirical test," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 565-581, September.
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7960 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Campos, Nauro F. & Hsiao, Cheng & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2006. "Crises, What Crises?," IZA Discussion Papers 2217, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Keynesian and Austrian Perspectives on Crisis, Shock Adjustment, Exchange Rate Regime and (Long-Term) Growth," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 847-868, November.
    2. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies : a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    3. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Havettová, Miroslava & Lábaj, Martin, 2013. "Income convergence prospects in Europe: Assessing the role of human capital dynamics," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 493-507.
    4. Ichiro Iwasaki & Mathilde Maurel, 2017. "The Impact of Crisis on Firm Creation and Regeneration in Russia: Regional Panel Data Analysis," Post-Print halshs-01505659, HAL.
    5. Danko Tarabar & Louis J. Pantuosco, 2023. "Reform complementarities and growth: Evidence and mechanisms," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 271-294, April.
    6. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16041, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    7. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Vlachaki, Irene, 2012. "When does more aid imply less democracy? An empirical examination," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 132-146.
    8. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Aurore Gary & Mathilde Maurel, 2013. "The effect of donors' policy coherence on growth," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00825816, HAL.
    10. Braga de Macedo, Jorge & Oliveira Martins, Joaquim & Rocha, Bruno, 2014. "Are complementary reforms a “luxury” for developing countries?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 417-435.
    11. Jan Babecky & Ales Bulir & Katerina Smidkova, 2012. "Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(3), pages 226-251, July.
    12. Torbjörn Becker & Anders Olofsgård, 2018. "From abnormal to normal : Two tales of growth from 25 years of transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(4), pages 769-800, October.
    13. Kearney, Colm, 2012. "Emerging markets research: Trends, issues and future directions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183.
    14. Ichiro Iwasaki & Kazuhiro Kumo, 2019. "J-Curve in Transition Economies: A Large Meta-analysis of the Determinants of Output Changes," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(1), pages 149-191, March.
    15. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies: a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    16. Campos, Nauro F. & De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2023. "Structural reforms and economic performance: the experience of advanced economies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120870, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Bicaba, Zorobabel T., 2011. "Do financial reforms complementarity and reforms sequence matter for international capital inflows?," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 12, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Campos, Nauro F. & Horváth, Roman, 2006. "Reform Redux: Measurement, Determinants and Reversals," IZA Discussion Papers 2093, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Jalles, João Tovar & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 129-145.
    3. Christiansen, Lone & Schindler, Martin & Tressel, Thierry, 2013. "Growth and structural reforms: A new assessment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 347-356.
    4. Hlaing, Su Wah & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2018. "Financial crisis and financial policy reform: Crisis origins and policy dimensions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 224-243.
    5. Artur Radziwill & Pawel Smietanka, 2009. "EU's Eastern Neighbours: Institutional Harmonisation and Potential Growth Bonus," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0386, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Nauro F. Campos & Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2017. "Structural Reforms, Growth and Inequality: An Overview of Theory, Measurement and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 6812, CESifo.
    7. Campos, Nauro F. & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 2009. "Financial Liberalization and Democracy: The Role of Reform Reversals," IZA Discussion Papers 4338, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Paola Giuliano & Prachi Mishra & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2013. "Democracy and Reforms: Evidence from a New Dataset," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 179-204, October.
    9. Golinelli, Roberto & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2013. "Did growth and reforms increase citizens' support for the transition?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 112-137.
    10. Campos, Nauro F. & Horváth, Roman, 2012. "Reform redux: Measurement, determinants and growth implications," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 227-237.
    11. Juan Blyde & Christian Daude & Eduardo Fernández-Arias, 2010. "Output collapses and productivity destruction," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 359-387, June.
    12. Nauro Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2010. "Financial Liberalization, Elite Heterogeneity and Political Reform," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS halshs-00967428, HAL.
    13. Giuliano, Paola & Mishra, Prachi & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2009. "Democracy and Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 4032, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. repec:zbw:bofitp:2021_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Samuel Brazys & Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati, 2021. "Aid curse with Chinese characteristics? Chinese development flows and economic reforms," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(3), pages 407-430, September.
    16. Romain Bouis & Romain Duval & Fabrice Murtin, 2011. "The Policy and Institutional Drivers of Economic Growth Across OECD and Non-OECD Economies: New Evidence from Growth Regressions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 843, OECD Publishing.
    17. Orkun Saka & Yuemei Ji & Paul De Grauwe, 2021. "Financial Policymaking after Crises: Public vs. Private Interests," CESifo Working Paper Series 9131, CESifo.
    18. Saka, Orkun & Ji, Yuemei & De Grauwe, Paul, 2021. "Financial policymaking after crises : Public vs. private interests," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2021, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    19. Waelti, Sébastien, 2015. "Financial crisis begets financial reform? The origin of the crisis matters," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 1-15.
    20. Saka, Orkun & Ji, Yuemei & De Grauwe, Paul, 2021. "Financial policymaking after crises: Public vs. private interests," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    21. Mounir Mahmalat & Declan Curran, 2018. "Do Crises Induce Reform? A Critical Review Of Conception, Methodology And Empirical Evidence Of The €˜Crisis Hypothesis’," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 613-648, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Recessions; crises; reform complementarities; transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-00643309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.