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Keynesian and Austrian Perspectives on Crisis, Shock Adjustment, Exchange Rate Regime and (Long-Term) Growth

  • Mathilde Maurel

    ()

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Gunther Schnabl

    ()

    (University of Leipzig - Institute for Economic Policy)

The 2010 European debt crisis has revived the discussion concerning the optimum adjustment strategy in the face of asymmetric shocks. Whereas Mundell's (1961) seminal theory on optimum currency areas suggests depreciation in the face of crisis, the most recent emergence of competitive depreciations, competitive interest rate cuts or currency wars questions the exchange rate as an adjustment tool to asymmetric economic development. This paper approaches the question from a theoretical perspective by confronting exchange rate based adjustment with crisis adjustment via price and wage cuts. Econometric estimations yield a negative impact of exchange rate flexibility/ volatility on growth, which is found to be particularly strong for countries with asymmetric business cycles and during recessions. Based on these findings we support a further enlargement of the European Monetary Union and recommend more exchange rate stability for the rest of the world.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00565231.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00565231
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  1. Andrew Rose, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 10373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Gunther Schnabl & Holger Zemanek, 2011. "Inter-temporal savings, current account trends and asymmetric shocks in a heterogeneous European Monetary Union," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 153-160, June.
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  10. Dellas, Harris & Tavlas, George, 2010. "An Optimum Currency Area Odyssey," CEPR Discussion Papers 7645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Fabrizio Coricelli & Mathilde Maurel, 2011. "Growth and Crisis in Transition: A Comparative Perspective," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 49-64, 02.
  12. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-57, March.
  13. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  14. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Migration and Regional Adjustment to Asymmetric Shocks in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3798, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
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  17. Chiara Bentivogli & Patrizio Pagano, 1999. "Regional Disparities and Labour Mobility: the Euro-11 versus the USA," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 13(3), pages 737-760, 09.
  18. Gunther Schnabl & Andreas Hoffmann, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets: An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1226-1252, 09.
  19. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena & Ugo Panizza, 2009. "International Evidenceon Recovery From Recessions," IMF Working Papers 09/183, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Working Papers 03001, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  21. Gunther Schnabl, 2007. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia," CESifo Working Paper Series 2023, CESifo Group Munich.
  22. Fidrmuc, Jan & Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Optimum choice of the exchange-rate regime for the accession-candidate countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 197-201, June.
  23. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00469327 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia. Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance 0406007, EconWPA, revised 07 Jul 2004.
  25. Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2008. "Exchange Rate Stability, Inflation, and Growth in (South) Eastern and Central Europe," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 530-549, 08.
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