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Short- and Long-term Growth Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustment

Author

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  • Evžen Kočenda
  • Mathilde Maurel
  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

The European sovereign debt crisis revived the discussion concerning pros and cons of exchange rate adjustment in the face of asymmetric shocks. In the spirit of keynes, exit from the euro area is to regain rapidly international competitiveness. In the spirit of Schumpeter, exhange rate stability with structural reforms would be beneficial towards the long-run growth performance. Previous literature has estimated the average growth of countries with different degrees of exchange rate flexibility. We augment this literature by analyzing short-and long-term growth effects of exchange rate flexibility in a panel-cointegration framework for a sample of 60 countries clustered in five country groups. The estimations show that countries with a high degree of exchange rate stability exhibit a higher long-term growth performance. In line with Mundell (1961), we show that the degree of business cycle synchronization with the (potential) anchor country matters for the impact of exchange rate flexibility on growth.
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Suggested Citation

  • Evžen Kočenda & Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2013. "Short- and Long-term Growth Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustment," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 137-150, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:21:y:2013:i:1:p:137-150
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.2013.21.issue-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Salah A. Nusair, 2017. "The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-27, January.
    2. Alexandre Henry, 2019. "Monetary Union, Competitiveness and Raw Commodity Dependence: Insights from Africa," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(2), pages 285-301, June.
    3. Ourir Awatef, 2025. "Sensitivity of Macroeconomic Variables to the Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from Transition Countries," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 3, pages 658-692, September.
    4. Fisera, Boris, 2024. "Exchange rates and the speed of economic recovery: The role of financial development," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    5. Ichiro Iwasaki & Mathilde Maurel, 2017. "The Impact of Crisis on Firm Creation and Regeneration in Russia: Regional Panel Data Analysis," Post-Print halshs-01505659, HAL.
    6. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16041, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    7. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya, 2014. "Demand and supply drivers of foreign currency loans in CEECs: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 26-42.
    8. Iqbal, Javed & Mahmood, Fatima & Nosheen, Misbah & Wohar, Mark, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of exchange rate misalignment on economic growth of India: An application of Hodrick–Prescott filter technique," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 809-823.
    9. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2016. "Co-movements of non-Euro EU currencies with the Euro," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 376-383.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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