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Short- and Long-Term Growth Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustment




The European sovereign debt crisis revived the discussion concerning pros and cons of exchange rate adjustment in the face of asymmetric shocks. In the spirit of keynes, exit from the euro area is to regain rapidly international competitiveness. In the spirit of Schumpeter, exhange rate stability with structural reforms would be beneficial towards the long-run growth performance. Previous literature has estimated the average growth of countries with different degrees of exchange rate flexibility. We augment this literature by analyzing short-and long-term growth effects of exchange rate flexibility in a panel-cointegration framework for a sample of 60 countries clustered in five country groups. The estimations show that countries with a high degree of exchange rate stability exhibit a higher long-term growth performance. In line with Mundell (1961), we show that the degree of business cycle synchronization with the (potential) anchor country matters for the impact of exchange rate flexibility on growth

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  • Evžen Kocenda & Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Short- and Long-Term Growth Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustment," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12069, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:12069

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ichiro Iwasaki & Mathilde Maurel, 2017. "The Impact of Crisis on Firm Creation and Regeneration in Russia: Regional Panel Data Analysis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01505659, HAL.
    2. repec:hal:journl:halshs-01318131 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01318131, HAL.
    4. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2016. "Co-movements of non-Euro EU currencies with the Euro," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 376-383.

    More about this item


    Exchange rate regime; crisis shock adjustment; theory of optimum currency areas; Mundell; Schumpeter; Hayek; cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative


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