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Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth: Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies

  • Ansgar Belke
  • Ralph Setzer

According to the traditional 'optimum currency area' approach, not much will be lost from a very hard peg to a currency union if there has been little reason for variations in the exchange rate. This paper takes a different approach and highlights the fact that high exchange rate volatility may as well signal high costs for labor markets. The impact of exchange rate volatility on labor markets in the CEECs is analyzed, finding that volatility vis-à-vis the euro significantly lowers employment growth. Hence, the elimination of exchange rate volatility could be considered as a substitute for a removal of employment protection legislation.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2003/wp-cesifo-2003-10/cesifo1_wp1056.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1056.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1056
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  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff & Ben Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, . "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is there a Common Cause?," Working Paper 32326, Harvard University OpenScholar.
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  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2001. "Fixing for your life," MPRA Paper 13873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
  10. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2002. "Monetary integration in the Southern Cone," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 323-349, December.
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  12. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 231-264, July.
  13. Jan Babetski & Laurence Boone & Mathilde Maurel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Supply Shocks Asymmetry: the Case of the Accession Countries," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp206, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
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  16. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Vallés Liberal, Javier & Viñals, José, 1996. "Do Exchange Rates Move to Address International Macroeconomic Imbalances?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Arellano, M., 1989. "A Note On The Anderson-Hsiao Estimator For Panel Data," Economics Series Working Papers 9975, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  18. Buiter, Willem H. & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Anchor, Float or Abandon Ship: Exchange Rate Regimes for Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June.
  20. Rose, Andrew K, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Monetary Policy, and Capital Mobility: Empirical Evidence on the Holy Trinity," CEPR Discussion Papers 929, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  22. D. Mario Nuti, 2002. "Costs and benefits of unilateral euroization in central eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 419-444, July.
  23. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent Raymond Reinhart, 2002. "What Hurts Emerging Markets Most? G3 Exchange Rate or Interest Rate Volatility?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 133-170 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Melitz, Jacques, 1995. "The current impasse in research on optimum currency areas," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 492-500, April.
  25. Attila Csajbók (ed.) & Ágnes Csermely (ed.), 2002. "Adopting the euro in Hungary: expected costs, benefits and timing," MNB Occasional Papers 2002/24, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  26. Meese, Richard, 1990. "Currency Fluctuations in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 117-34, Winter.
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