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Costs of Exchange Rate Volatility for Labour Markets - Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies


  • Ansgar Belke

    (University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart)

  • Ralph Setzer

    (University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart)


According to the traditional ‘optimum currency area’ approach, little will be lost from a very hard peg to a currency union if there is little reason for using the exchange rate in response to economic shocks. This paper takes a different approach and highlights the fact that high exchange rate volatility may as well signal high costs for labour markets. The impact of exchange rate volatility on labour markets in the CEECs is analysed, finding that volatility vis-à-vis the euro significantly increases unemployment. Hence, the elimination of exchange rate volatility could be considered as a substitute for the removal of employment protection legislation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Costs of Exchange Rate Volatility for Labour Markets - Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 267-292.
  • Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:34:y:2003:i:3:p:267-292

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    3. Meese, Richard, 1990. "Currency Fluctuations in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 117-134, Winter.
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    5. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 231-264, July.
    6. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
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    9. Attila Csajbók (ed.) & Ágnes Csermely (ed.), 2002. "Adopting the euro in Hungary: expected costs, benefits and timing," MNB Occasional Papers 2002/24, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    10. Dimitri Boreiko, 2002. "EMU and Accession Countries: Fuzzy Cluster Analysis of Membership," Working Papers 71, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    11. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    12. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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