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Incertitude sur le taux de change et chômage dans les pays candidats : un argument pour l’euroïsation

  • Ralph Setzer
  • Ansgar Belke

[eng] Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Unemployment in the Accession Countries : A Case for Euroization by Ansgar Belke and Ralph Setzer . The traditional “ optimum currency area ” approach posits that little is lost in the transition to a very hard peg to a currency union if exchange rate variations are small . This paper looks at this approach from a different angle by considering that exchange rate volatility could well reflect high labor market costs . An analysis of the effect of exchange rate volatility on labor markets in the CEECs shows that exchange rate volatility significantly increases unemployment . The transition to a fixed exchange rate or the adoption of the euro could therefore be considered as a substitute for the removal of employment protection legislation . Keywords : Central and Eastern Europe , currency union , exchange rate variability , job creation [fre] Selon l ’ approche traditionnelle des “ zones monétaires optimales ”, on perd peu dans le passage d ’ un ancrage fort à une union monétaire si les variations du taux de change sont faibles . Cette approche est ici inversée : on considère que la volatilité du taux de change reflète les dysfonctionnements des marchés du travail . L ’ analyse de l ’ impact de la volatilité du taux de change sur les marchés du travail dans les pays d ’ Europe centrale et orientale (Peco ) révèle que cette dernière accroît significativement le chômage . Le passage à un taux de change fixe ou l ’ adoption de l ’ euro sont alors considérés comme un substitut au retrait de la législation sur la protection de l ’ emploi .

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 163 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 63-74

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2004_num_163_2_7343
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2004.7343
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. D. Mario Nuti, 2002. "Costs and benefits of unilateral euroization in central eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 419-444, July.
  3. Arellano, Manuel, 1989. "A note on the Anderson-Hsiao estimator for panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 337-341, December.
  4. Buiter, Willem H. & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Anchor, Float or Abandon Ship: Exchange Rate Regimes for Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2002. "Monetary Integration in the Southern Cone: Mercosur is not like the EU?," Working Papers 72, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  6. Tito Boeri & Katherine Terrell, 2002. "Institutional Determinants of Labor Reallocation in Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 51-76, Winter.
  7. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June.
  8. Willem H. Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2002. "Anchor, float or abandon ship: exchange rate regimes for the accession countries," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(221), pages 111-142.
  9. Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1998. "Currencies and the Allocation of Risk: The Welfare Effects of a Monetary Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 246-59, March.
  10. Dmitri Boreiko, 2002. "EMU and Accession Countries: Fuzzy Cluster Analysis of Membership," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 189, Central Bank of Chile.
  11. Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
  13. Ansgar Belke, 2002. "EU Enlargement, Exchange Rate Variability and Labor Market Performance," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 213/2002, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  14. Helmut Stix, 2001. "Survey Results about Foreign Currency Holdings in Five Central and Eastern European Countries," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(3), pages 41-48, 02.
  15. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 231-264, July.
  16. Dimitri Boreiko, 2002. "EMU and Accession Countries: Fuzzy Cluster Analysis of Membership," Working Papers 71, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  17. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2002. "Monetary integration in the Southern Cone," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 323-349, December.
  18. Chen, Yu-Fu & Gylfi Zoega, 2002. "Exchange-Rate Volatility as Employment Protection," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 46, Royal Economic Society.
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