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Incertitude sur le taux de change et chômage dans les pays candidats : un argument pour leuroïsation

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  • Ansgar Belke
  • Ralph Setzer

Abstract

[eng] Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Unemployment in the Accession Countries : A Case for Euroization by Ansgar Belke and Ralph Setzer . The traditional “ optimum currency area ” approach posits that little is lost in the transition to a very hard peg to a currency union if exchange rate variations are small . This paper looks at this approach from a different angle by considering that exchange rate volatility could well reflect high labor market costs . An analysis of the effect of exchange rate volatility on labor markets in the CEECs shows that exchange rate volatility significantly increases unemployment . The transition to a fixed exchange rate or the adoption of the euro could therefore be considered as a substitute for the removal of employment protection legislation . Keywords : Central and Eastern Europe , currency union , exchange rate variability , job creation [fre] Selon l ’ approche traditionnelle des “ zones monétaires optimales ”, on perd peu dans le passage d ’ un ancrage fort à une union monétaire si les variations du taux de change sont faibles . Cette approche est ici inversée : on considère que la volatilité du taux de change reflète les dysfonctionnements des marchés du travail . L ’ analyse de l ’ impact de la volatilité du taux de change sur les marchés du travail dans les pays d ’ Europe centrale et orientale (Peco ) révèle que cette dernière accroît significativement le chômage . Le passage à un taux de change fixe ou l ’ adoption de l ’ euro sont alors considérés comme un substitut au retrait de la législation sur la protection de l ’ emploi .

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2004. "Incertitude sur le taux de change et chômage dans les pays candidats : un argument pour leuroïsation," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 63-74.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2004_num_163_2_7343
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2004.7343
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