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The Cost of Financial Market Variability in the Southern Cone

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  • Ansgar Belke
  • Daniel Gros

Abstract

The paper evaluates the costs and benefits of exchange rate (and interest rate) stability for the countries in the Southern Cone of Latin America. It investigates the correlation between two aspects of financial market volatility, namely that of the exchange rate and interest rate volatility, during the last three decades, comparing the situation in the Southern Cone to that in the eu (pre-emu). It also analyses the impact of both aspects of financial volatility on investment and labor markets in the Southern Cone, finding that both exchange rate and interest rate variability have a significant dampening impact on employment and investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2003. "The Cost of Financial Market Variability in the Southern Cone," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1091-1115.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_545_1091
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
    2. Barry Eichengreen, 1998. "Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency," NBER Working Papers 6821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Matteo Bugamelli & Luigi Infante, 2003. "Sunk Costs of Exports," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 469, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent Raymond Reinhart, 2002. "What Hurts Emerging Markets Most? G3 Exchange Rate or Interest Rate Volatility?," NBER Chapters,in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 133-170 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
    9. Carmen Pagés-Serra & James J. Heckman, 2000. "The Cost of Job Security Regulation: Evidence from Latin American Labor Markets," Research Department Publications 4227, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "After the Deluge: Do Fixed Exchange Rates Allow Inter-temporal Volatility Tradeoffs?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 47-54, January.
    11. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2002. "Designing EU-US Atlantic Monetary Relations: Exchange Rate Variability and Labour Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 789-813, June.
    12. Carmen Pagés-Serra, 2000. "The Cost of Job Security Regulation: Evidence from Latin American Labor Markets," ECONOMIA JOURNAL, THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2000), pages 109-154, August.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 231-264, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2004. "Contagion, herding and exchange-rate instability — A survey," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 39(4), pages 222-228, July.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Lars Wang, 2005. "The Costs and Benefits of Monetary Integration Reconsidered: How to Measure Economic Openness," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 262/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    3. Sánchez-Martín, Miguel Eduardo & de Arce, Rafael & Escribano, Gonzalo, 2014. "Do changes in the rules of the game affect FDI flows in Latin America? A look at the macroeconomic, institutional and regional integration determinants of FDI," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 279-299.

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