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Le dollar, l’innovation et l’emploi

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  • Gilles Saint-Paul

Abstract

[fre] Cet article discute de l'effet de long terme du régime de change sur l'innovation, l'activité et l'emploi, à la lumière de la littérature théorique et empirique récente. Le régime de change est en théorie indépendant en soi de la croissance de long terme, mais la politique de change a des effets persistants dans le moyen terme, à travers les effets d'un changement de la structure industrielle ou encore la volatilité du PIB et du taux de change réel. On sait que la volatilité du taux de change nominal se traduit également par une volatilité réelle dont un certain nombre d'études suggèrent qu'elle est néfaste à la croissance. Mais un régime de change fixe ne réduit pas systématiquement la volatilité du taux de change réel car il s'interdit d'annuler les différentiels d'inflation au moyen d'un ajustement nominal. Certains auteurs ont montré que le régime le plus favorable à la croissance était un régime flexible avec néanmoins une politique monétaire visant à stabiliser les parités. . Classification JEL : F30, F31, F4 [eng] The Dollar, Innovation and Employment . This article discusses the long-run effect of the exchange rare regime on innovation, output and employment, based on some recent literature. In theory, the exchange rate regime should be independent per se of long-term growth, but it may have substantial medium run effects through hysteresis or through its consequences for output and real exchange rate volatility. ln particular, real volatility seems to be harmful for growth and different regimes have a different impact on real volatility. Some authors have shown that a managed floating regime is best in delivering low volatility and high growth, in contrast to unmanaged floating as well as fixed exchange rates. . Classification JEL : F30, F31, F4

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Saint-Paul, 2009. "Le dollar, l’innovation et l’emploi," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(1), pages 107-115.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2009_num_94_1_5294
    DOI: 10.3406/ecofi.2009.5294
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2009.5294
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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