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Credit Constraints, Cyclical Fiscal Policy and Industry Growth

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  • Philippe Aghion
  • David Hemous
  • Enisse Kharroubi

Abstract

This paper evaluates whether the cyclical pattern of fiscal policy can affect growth. We first build a simple endogenous growth model where entrepreneurs can invest either in short-run projects or in long-term growth enhancing projects. Long-term projects involve a liquidity risk which credit constrained firms try to overcome by borrowing on the basis of their short-run profits. By increasing firms' market size in recessions, a countercyclical fiscal policy will boost investment in productivity-enhancing long-term projects, and the more so in sectors that rely more on external financing or which display lower asset tangibility. Second, the paper tests this prediction using Rajan and Zingales (1998)'s diff-and-diff methodology on a panel data sample of manufacturing industries across 17 OECD countries over the period 1980-2005. The evidence confirms that the positive effects of a more countercyclical fiscal policy on value added growth, productivity growth, and R&D expenditure, are indeed larger in industries with heavier reliance on external finance or lower asset tangibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Aghion & David Hemous & Enisse Kharroubi, 2009. "Credit Constraints, Cyclical Fiscal Policy and Industry Growth," NBER Working Papers 15119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15119
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    Cited by:

    1. Aghion, Philippe & Angeletos, George-Marios & Banerjee, Abhijit & Manova, Kalina, 2010. "Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 246-265, April.
    2. Luc Laeven & Fabián Valencia, 2013. "The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions during Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 147-177, February.
    3. Tagkalakis, Athanasios O., 2014. "Credit and the transmission of fiscal policy shocks: Recent evidence from Greece," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 263-267.
    4. Alessandro Maravalle & Peter Claeys, 2010. "Fiscal policy and economic stability: does PIGS stand for Procyclicality In Government Spending?," IREA Working Papers 201015, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised 2010.
    5. Francisco de Castro & Francisco Martí & Antonio Montesinos & Javier J. Pérez & A. Jesús Sánchez-Fuentes, 2014. "Fiscal policies in Spain: Main stylises facts revisited," Working Papers 1408, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    6. Adam S. Posen, 2010. "The Central Banker's Case for Doing More," Policy Briefs PB10-24, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Luc Laeven & Oana M Nedelescu & Stijn Claessens & Fabian Valencia & Marc Dobler & Katharine Seal, 2011. "Crisis Management and Resolution; Early Lessons from the Financial Crisis," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/05, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2013. "The unemployment effects of fiscal policy: recent evidence from Greece," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, December.
    9. Konstantinou, Panagiotis & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Boosting confidence: Is there a role for fiscal policy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1629-1641, July.
    10. Lemoine, M. & Mougin, C., 2010. "The Growth-Volatility Relationship: New Evidence Based on Stochastic Volatility in Mean Models," Working papers 285, Banque de France.
    11. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:372-387 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Martín Guzman & Pablo Gluzmann, 2012. "Tensions in the Implementation of Central Banks’ Policies in the Pursuit of Economic Development," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(65-66), pages 173-205, September.
    13. Piero Ferri & Steve Fazzari & Edward Greenberg & Anna Variato, 2011. "Aggregate Demand, Harrod’s Instability and Fluctuations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 209-220, October.
    14. Dan Andrews & Chiara Criscuolo, 2013. "Knowledge-Based Capital, Innovation and Resource Allocation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1046, OECD Publishing.
    15. Nadia Belhaj Hassine-Belghith, 2007. "Exporting , Productive Efficiency and Product Quality: An Empirical Analysis Of the Agricultural Sector in the Mediterranean Countries," Working Papers 711, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Jan 2007.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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