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Cyclical Budgetary Policy and Economic Growth: What Do We Learn from OECD Panel Data?

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22

  • Philippe Aghion
  • Ioana Marinescu

This paper uses yearly panel data on OECD countries to analyze the relationship between growth and the cyclicality of government debt. We develop new time-varying estimates of the cyclicality of public debt. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (i) less procyclical public debt growth can have significantly positive effects on productivity growth, in particular when financial development is lower; (ii) public debt growth has become increasingly countercyclical in most OECD countries over the past twenty years, but this trend has been less pronounced in the EMU; (iii) less financially developed or more open economies display less countercyclical public debt growth.

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This chapter was published in:
  • Daron Acemoglu & Kenneth Rogoff & Michael Woodford, 2008. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number acem07-1, May.
  • This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 4081.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:4081
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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    Web page: http://www.nber.org
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    1. Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Ranciere, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Scholarly Articles 12490419, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October.
    4. Ernesto Talvi & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Lane, Philip R. & Tornell, Aaron, 1998. "Why aren't savings rates in Latin America procyclical?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 185-199, October.
    6. Philippe Aghion & George-Marios Angeletos & Abhijit Banerjee & Kalina Manova, 2005. "Volatility and Growth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBER Working Papers 11349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Easterly, William, 2005. "National Policies and Economic Growth: A Reappraisal," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 1015-1059 Elsevier.
    8. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries; Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 96/70, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Cesar Calderon & Roberto Duncan, 2004. "The quality of institutions and cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 350, Econometric Society.
    10. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
    11. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," NBER Working Papers 11600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
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