Insignificant and Inconsequential Hysteresis: The Case of the U.S. Bilateral Trade
This paper casts doubt on the validity of the hysteresis hypothesis as an explanation of the persistent U.S. trade deficits in the 1980s. We propose two tests to investigate two different implications of the hypothesis. The first implication is that cumulative changes in exchange rates, in addition to current exchange rate levels, are important determinants of trade flows. The second implication is that foreign exporting firms' perceptions of exchange rate volatility will affect their decisions to enter or exit the market. We find little support for either aspect of the hysteresis hypothesis.
|Date of creation:||May 1994|
|Publication status:||published as Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 75, no. 4 (1993): 606-613.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 1-56.
- Shang-Jin Wei, 1991.
"Anticipations of foreign exchange volatility and bid-ask spreads,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
409, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Shang-Jin Wei, 1994. "Anticipations of Foreign Exchange Volatility and Bid-Ask Spreads," NBER Working Papers 4737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989.
"Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
- Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Insignificant and Inconsequential Hysteresis: The Case of U.S. Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 606-613, November.
- Baldwin, Richard, 1988.
"Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-785, September.
- Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4738. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.