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The Impact of Monetary Union on Trade Prices

  • Anderton, Robert

    (European Central Bank)

  • Richard E Baldwin
  • Daria Taglioni

Two seemingly unconnected empirical results suggest an intriguing mechanism. First, economic integration helps harmonize prices internationally, with trade being the primary channel (Rogoff 1996, Goldberg and Knetter 1997). Second, monetary union may greatly increase the amount of trade among members (Rose 2001). Putting these together, we see that formation of a monetary union may induce changes that help harmonise inflation rates. The effect might be large if the elimination of exchange rate volatility simultaneously leads to a large increase in intra-union trade and a big increase in the speed at which price shocks are transmitted across members' goods markets. The problem is that standard estimates of price transmission speed suggest that trade's price-homogenising effect operates too slowly to matter much. Some new empirical evidence, however, suggests that a reduction in exchange rate variability reduces the variability of international price differences. Moreover, the effect seems to be highly nonlinear, and monetary union seems to have an effect even controlling for exchange rate volatility. This paper is a first attempt to piece together part of this mechanism, namely the impact of monetary union (and exchange rate volatility more generally) on the international transmission of price shocks via the imported/exported inflation channel. In doing this we generate specific testable hypotheses and confront these with a number of data sets on European trade prices.

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Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 with number 5.

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Date of creation: 04 Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:5
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  1. Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Richard Baldwin, 1988. "Hysteresis In Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," NBER Working Papers 2545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  9. Shin, Dong Wan & Lee, Oesook, 2001. "Tests for Asymmetry in Possibly Nonstationary Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 233-44, April.
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  11. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  12. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-28, May.
  13. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, 08.
  14. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
  15. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  16. Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998. "Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff General Research Papers 1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  17. Friberg, Richard, 2001. "Two monies, two markets?: Variability and the option to segment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 317-327, December.
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