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The impact of monetary union on trade prices

Two seemingly unconnected empirical results suggest an intriguing mechanism. Firstly, economic integration helps harmonize prices internationally, with trade being the primary channel [Rogoff (1996), Goldberg and Knetter (1997)]. Secondly, monetary union may greatly increase the amount of trade among members [Rose (2001)]. Putting these together, we see that formation of a monetary union may induce changes that help harmonize inflation rates. The effect might be large if the elimination of exchange rate volatility simultaneously leads to a large increase in intra-union trade and a big increase in the speed at which price shocks are transmitted across members’ goods markets. This paper investigates part of this mechanism and finds that monetary union may indeed result in faster cross-border transmission of price movements via the import and export price channel which, in turn, would tend to homogenize price movements across the member countries of a monetary union.

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Article provided by Capco Institute in its journal Journal of Financial Transformation.

Volume (Year): 19 (2007)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 35-48

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Handle: RePEc:ris:jofitr:0871
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  1. Richard Baldwin, 1988. "Hysteresis In Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," NBER Working Papers 2545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Friberg, Richard, 2000. "Two monies, two markets? Variability and the option to segment," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 349, Stockholm School of Economics.
  3. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Rose, Andrew, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," Seminar Papers 678, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  6. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  7. David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2001. "Limiting Currency Volatility to Stimulate Goods Market Integration; A Price-Based Approach," IMF Working Papers 01/197, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, 08.
  9. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  10. Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998. "Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff General Research Papers 1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  11. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
  12. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
  13. Shin, Dong Wan & Lee, Oesook, 2001. "Tests for Asymmetry in Possibly Nonstationary Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 233-44, April.
  14. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  15. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," NBER Working Papers 6053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Avinash Dixit, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-228.
  17. Marcus Asplund & Richard Friberg, 2001. "The Law of One Price in Scandinavian Duty-Free Stores," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1072-1083, September.
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