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Anticipations of Foreign Exchange Volatility and Bid-Ask Spreads

  • Shang-Jin Wei

The paper studies the effect of the market's perceived exchange rate volatility on bid-ask spreads. The anticipated volatility is extracted from currency options data. An increase in the perceived volatility is found to widen bid-ask spreads. The direction of the effect is consistent with an option model of the spread, but the magnitude is smaller. An increase in trading volume of spot exchange rates also widens the spread. The omission of the trading volume, however, does not bias the estimate of the effect of the volatility on the spreads. Although the spread-volatility relation implied by the option model of the spread is close to linear, some form of nonlinearity can still be detected from the data.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4737.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4737.

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Date of creation: May 1994
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4737
Note: IFM
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  1. Richard K. Lyons, 1986. "Tests of the foreign exchange risk premium using the expected second moments implied by option pricing," International Finance Discussion Papers 290, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Glassman, Debra, 1987. "Exchange rate risk and transactions costs: Evidence from bid-ask spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 479-490, December.
  3. Melvin, Michael & Tan, Kok-Hui, 1996. "Foreign Exchange Market Bid-Ask Spreads and the Market Price of Social Unrest," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 329-41, April.
  4. Richard K. Lyons, 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 4471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
  6. Black, Stanley W., 1991. "Transactions costs and vehicle currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 512-526, December.
  7. Boothe, Paul M, 1988. "Exchange Rate Risk and the Bid-Ask Spread: A Seven Country Comparison," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(3), pages 485-92, July.
  8. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, June.
  9. David S. Bates, . "Pricing Options Under Jump-Diffusion Processes," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 37-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  10. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1987. " Components of the Bid-Ask Spread and the Statistical Properties of Transaction Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(5), pages 1293-1307, December.
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