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The microstructure approach to exchange rates: a survey from a central bank’s viewpoint

  • Áron Gereben

    ()

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • György Gyomai

    ()

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (at the time of writing this study))

  • Norbert Kiss M.

    ()

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

The application of the market microstructure theory to foreign exchange markets in the last few years has introduced a new approach to the analysis of exchange rates. The most important variable of the microstructure analysis, the so-called order flow has proven to be suitable for explaining a significant part of exchange rate changes, not only for high frequency data, but also at longer time horizons that are relevant for macro-economic analysis. Microstructure theory is thus extremely successful from an empirical point of view, especially when compared to traditional exchange rate models. The aim of our study is to provide an introduction to the microstructure-based analysis of exchange rates, emphasising those aspects which may be the most relevant for central banks. In addition to an introduction to the theoretical background of the microstructure approach and the presentation of the key empirical results, we also intend to cast light upon the questions which are important for central banks and which can be tackled successfully using this framework. On the basis of the literature's findings, we present the answers given by the microstructure approach to, among others, questions concerning the efficiency of central bank intervention, the effects of economic news on exchange rates, and the role of different currency market participants in exchange rate developments.

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Paper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Occasional Papers with number 2005/42.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2005/42
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.mnb.hu/

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  1. Vitale, Paolo, 2004. "A Guided Tour of the Market Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," CEPR Discussion Papers 4530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Andreas Fischer, 2004. "Price Clustering in the FX Market: A Disaggregate Analysis using Central Bank Interventions," Working Papers 04.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, December.
  4. Rasmus Fatum & Michael R. King, 2005. "Rules versus Discretion in Foreign Exchange Intervention: Evidence from Official Bank of Canada High-Frequency Data," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-06, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  5. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2004. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 573-594, June.
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  7. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Towards a Solution to the Puzzles in Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Working Papers wp05-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  8. Fischer, Andreas M, 2004. "Reuters News Reports versus Official Interventions: The Inaccuracy of Reuters Reports for Swiss Interventions," CEPR Discussion Papers 4359, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Carol L. Osler, 2003. "Currency Orders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Explanation for the Predictive Success of Technical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1791-1820, October.
  10. Norbert Kiss M., 2004. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on Money Markets," MNB Occasional Papers 2004/30, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  11. Antonio Scalia, 2006. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some micro-analytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 579, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  12. Charles Goodhart & Takatoshi Ito & Richard Payne, 1995. "One Day in June, 1994: A Study of the Working of Reuters 2000-2 Electronic Foreign Exchange Trading System," NBER Technical Working Papers 0179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
  14. Fischer, Andreas M & Zurlinden, Mathias, 1999. "Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions: An Analysis of Transaction Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 662-76, October.
  15. BEN OMRANE, Walid & HEINEN, Andréas, 2003. "The response of individual FX dealers'quoting activity to macroeconomic news announcements," CORE Discussion Papers 2003070, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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