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An information approach to international currencies

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  • Lyons, Richard K.
  • Moore, Michael J.

Abstract

Models of currency competition focus on the 5% of trading attributable to balance-of-payments flows. We introduce an information approach that focuses on the other 95%. Important departures from traditional models arise when transactions convey information. First, prices reveal different information depending on whether trades are direct or though vehicle currencies. Second, missing markets arise due to insufficiently symmetric information, rather than insufficient transactions scale. Third, the indeterminacy of equilibrium that arises in traditional models is resolved: currency trade patterns no longer concentrate arbitrarily on market size. Empirically, we provide a first analysis of transactions across a full market triangle: the euro, yen and US dollar. The estimated transaction effects on prices support the information approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2009. "An information approach to international currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 211-221, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:79:y:2009:i:2:p:211-221
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    Cited by:

    1. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2009. "Does the law of one price hold in international financial markets? Evidence from tick data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1741-1754, October.
    2. Liu, Tao & Wang, Xiaosong, 2016. "The Road to International Currency: Global Perspective and Chinese Experience," MPRA Paper 72877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hans Jørgen Tranvåg & Dagfinn Rime, 2012. "The Flows of the Pacific: Asian foreign exchange markets through tranquility and turbulence," Working Paper Series 12412, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    4. Eichengreen, Barry & Lafarguette, Romain & Mehl, Arnaud, 2016. "Cables, Sharks and Servers: Technology and the Geography of the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 11053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Livia, Chitu & Mehl, Arnaud, 2014. "Stability or upheaval? The currency composition of international reserves in the long run," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
    7. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2008. "Price Impacts of Deals and Predictability of the Exchange Rate Movements," NBER Chapters,in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy (NBER-EASE Volume 17), pages 177-217 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Roman Kozhan & Wing Wah Tham, 2012. "Execution Risk in High-Frequency Arbitrage," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(11), pages 2131-2149, November.
    9. Flandreau, Marc & Jobst, Clemens, 2006. "The Empirics of International Currencies: Historical Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 5529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. repec:eee:jimfin:v:77:y:2017:i:c:p:199-215 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jón Daníelsson & Ryan Love, 2006. "Feedback trading This paper is also available at www.riskresearch.org," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 35-53.
    12. Gençay, Ramazan & Gradojevic, Nikola, 2013. "Private information and its origins in an electronic foreign exchange market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 86-93.
    13. Marc Flandreau & Clemens Jobst, 2006. "The Empirics of International Currencies: Evidence from the 19th Century," Working Papers hal-01065631, HAL.
    14. Zhang, Cathy, 2014. "An information-based theory of international currency," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 286-301.
    15. Moore, Michael J. & Payne, Richard, 2011. "On the sources of private information in FX markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1250-1262, May.
    16. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/669 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Potì, Valerio & Siddique, Akhtar, 2013. "What drives currency predictability?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 86-106.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange Vehicle currency Information Microstructure;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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