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Trading volumes, volatility and spreads in foreign exchange markets: evidence from emerging market countries

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  • Gabriele Galati

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between trading volumes, volatility and bid-ask spreads in foreign exchange markets. It uses a new data set that includes daily data on trading volumes for the dollar exchange rates of seven currencies from emerging market countries. The sample period is 1 January 1998 to 30 June 1999. The results are broadly consistent with the findings of the literature that used futures volumes as proxies for total foreign exchange trading. I find that in most cases unexpected trading volumes and volatility are positively correlated, suggesting that both are driven by the arrival of public information, as predicted by the mixture of distributions hypothesis. I also find that the correlation between trading volumes and volatility is positive during "normal" periods but turns negative when volatility increases sharply. Finally, the results suggest that volatility and spreads are positively correlated, as suggested by inventory cost models. However, contrary to the prediction of these models, I do not find evidence of a significant impact of unexpected trading volumes on spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriele Galati, 2000. "Trading volumes, volatility and spreads in foreign exchange markets: evidence from emerging market countries," BIS Working Papers 93, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:93
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shang-Jin Wei, 1991. "Anticipations of foreign exchange volatility and bid-ask spreads," International Finance Discussion Papers 409, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Saunders, Anthony, 1986. "Futures Price Variability: A Test of Maturity and Volume Effects," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 319-330, April.
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Traders, Market Microstructure and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Scalia, Antonio, 2008. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some microanalytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 529-546, June.
    2. Alexander Mende, 2006. "09/11 on the USD/EUR foreign exchange market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 213-222.
    3. Zhang, Zhichao & Chau, Frankie & Zhang, Wenting, 2013. "Exchange rate determination and dynamics in China: A market microstructure analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 303-316.
    4. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia L. & Tsorakidis, Nikos, 2013. "Bid-ask spread dynamics in foreign exchange markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 119-131.
    5. Luc Bauwens & Dagfinn Rime & Genaro Sucarrat, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and the mixture of distribution hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 889-911, January.
    6. Khemraj, Tarron & Pasha, Sukrishnalall, 2008. "Foreign exchange market bid-ask spread and market power in an underdeveloped economy," MPRA Paper 11422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shekhar Hari Kumar & Ila Patnaik, 2018. "Internationalisation of the Rupee," Working Papers id:12551, eSocialSciences.
    8. Imen Kouki & Hélène Raymond, 2006. "Analyse microstructurelle du comportement du teneur de marché des changes : étude intra-journalière de l'activité d'un teneur de marché tunisien," EconomiX Working Papers 2006-14, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    9. Kumar, Shekhar Hari & Patnaik, Ila, 2018. "Internationalisation of the Rupee," Working Papers 18/222, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    10. Park, Beum-Jo, 2010. "Surprising information, the MDH, and the relationship between volatility and trading volume," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 344-366, August.
    11. Beum-Jo Park, 2007. "Trading Volume, Volatility, And Garch Effects In The South Korean Won/Us Dollar Exchange Market: Evidence From Conditional Quantile Estimation," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 382-399.
    12. Becker, Torbjorn & Sy, Amadou, 2006. "Were bid-ask spreads in the FX market excessive during the Asian crisis?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 434-449.
    13. Santiago García-Verdú & Miguel Zerecero, 2013. "On central bank interventions in the Mexican peso/dollar foreign exchange market," BIS Working Papers 429, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Carlo Rosa, 2016. "Fedspeak: Who Moves U.S. Asset Prices?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 223-261, December.
    15. Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Fabien Collado & Ulysse Galiay, 2011. "The dynamics of the volatility – trading volume relationship: New evidence from developed and emerging markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2569-2583.
    16. Olivier Damette, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and noise traders: Currency Transaction Tax as an eviction device," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2449-2464.
    17. Francis Bismans & Olivier Damette, 2012. "La taxe Tobin : une synthèse des travaux basés sur la théorie des jeux et l’économétrie," Working Papers of BETA 2012-09, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    18. Rim Khemiri, 2012. "Volume and volatility in foreign exchange market microstructure: a Markov switching approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(14), pages 1121-1133, July.
    19. Koutmos, Gregory & Martin, Anna D., 2011. "Currency bid-ask spread dynamics and the Asian crisis: Evidence across currency regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 62-73, February.
    20. Rime, Dagfinn & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2007. "Exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity," UC3M Working papers. Economics we077039, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.

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