Volume and Volatility in the FX Market: Does it matter who you are?
The relationship between volume and volatility has received much attention in the literature on financial markets. However, due to the lack of data, few results have been presented for the foreign exchange (FX) market. Furthermore, most studies contain only aggregate series, and cannot distinguish between the impact of different participants or instruments. We study the impact of volume on volatility in the FX market using a unique data set of daily trading in the Swedish krona (SEK) market. The data set covers 95 percent of worldwide SEK trading, and is disaggregated on a number of reporting banks' buying and selling in five different instruments on a daily basis from 1995 until 2002. We find that volume in general show a positive correlation with volatility. However, the strength of the relationship depends on the instrument traded and the identity of the reporting bank. In particular, we find that trading tends to concentrate around the largest banks during periods of high volatility. These banks are probably also best informed. This is especially the case when volatility is high. We interpret this as evidence that heterogeneous expectations are important to an understanding of the volume- volatility relationship.
|Date of creation:||20 Aug 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||Forthcoming in Exchange Rate Modelling: Where do we Stand? (Paul De Grauwe, ed.), MIT Press|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Postboks 1179 Sentrum, 0107 Oslo|
Phone: +47 22 31 60 00
Fax: +47 22 41 31 05
Web page: http://www.norges-bank.no/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000.
"Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
251, CESifo Group Munich.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
- Lyons, Richard K., 1995.
"Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
- Richard K. Lyons, 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 4471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard K. Lyons., 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-230, University of California at Berkeley.
- Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
- Goodhart, C. A. E. & Figliuoli, L., 1991. "Every minute counts in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 23-52, March.
- Chang, Eric C. & Michael Pinegar, J. & Schachter, Barry, 1997. "Interday variations in volume, variance and participation of large speculators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 797-810, June.
- Robert T. Daigler & Marilyn K. Wiley, 1999. "The Impact of Trader Type on the Futures Volatility-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2297-2316, December.
- Grammatikos, Theoharry & Saunders, Anthony, 1986. "Futures Price Variability: A Test of Maturity and Volume Effects," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 319-30, April.
- Epps, Thomas W & Epps, Mary Lee, 1976. "The Stochastic Dependence of Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Implications for the Mixture-of-Distributions Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 305-21, March.
- Evans, Martin D. & Lyons, Richard K., 1999.
"Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series
qt0dh1c16w, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
- Shang-Jin Wei, 1994.
"Anticipations of Foreign Exchange Volatility and Bid-Ask Spreads,"
NBER Working Papers
4737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shang-Jin Wei, 1991. "Anticipations of foreign exchange volatility and bid-ask spreads," International Finance Discussion Papers 409, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985.
"Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Paul R. Milgrom, 1983. "Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders," Discussion Papers 570, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Mark Grinblatt, 2001. "How Distance, Language, and Culture Influence Stockholdings and Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 1053-1073, 06.
- Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J, 1992. " Futures-Trading Activity and Stock Price Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 2015-34, December.
- Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
- Philippe Jorion, 1996. "Risk and Turnover in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 19-40 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J., 1993. "Price Volatility, Trading Volume, and Market Depth: Evidence from Futures Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(01), pages 21-39, March.
- Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1990. "A Theory of the Interday Variations in Volume, Variance, and Trading Costs in Securities Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 593-624.
- Shalen, Catherine T, 1993. "Volume, Volatility, and the Dispersion of Beliefs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 405-34.
- Hartmann, Philipp, 1999. "Trading volumes and transaction costs in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from daily dollar-yen spot data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 801-824, May.
- Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian, 1993. " Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1421-43, September.
- Bjonnes,H. & Rime,D., 2000. "FX trading ... LIVE! : dealer behavior and trading systems in foreign exchange markets," Memorandum 29/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2003_07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.