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An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market

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  • Cerrato, Mario
  • Sarantis, Nicholas
  • Saunders, Alex

Abstract

This paper examines the effect that heterogeneous customer orders flows have on exchange rates by using a new, and the largest, proprietary dataset of weekly net order flow segmented by customer type across nine of the most liquid currency pairs. We make several contributions. Firstly, we investigate the extent to which customer order flow can help to explain exchange rate movements over and above the influence of macro-economic variables. Secondly, we address the issue of whether order flows contain (private) information which explain exchange rates changes. Thirdly, we look at the usefulness of order flow in forecasting exchange rate movements at longer horizons than those generally considered in the micro-structure literature. Finally we address the question of whether the out-of-sample exchange rate forecasts generated by order flows can be employed profitably in the foreign exchange markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerrato, Mario & Sarantis, Nicholas & Saunders, Alex, 2011. "An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1892-1906, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:8:p:1892-1906
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    Cited by:

    1. Ligon, James A. & Liu, Hao-Chen, 2013. "The relation of trade size and price contribution in a traditional foreign exchange brokered market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1024-1045.
    2. Chen, Shikuan & Chien, Chih-Chung & Chang, Ming-Jen, 2012. "Order flow, bid–ask spread and trading density in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 597-612.
    3. Cerrato, Mario & Kim, Hyunsok & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Microstructure order flow: statistical and economic evaluation of nonlinear forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 40-52.
    4. Chen, Yu-Lun & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2014. "Asymmetric responses of ask and bid quotes to information in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 194-204.
    5. repec:uts:finphd:34 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Ülkü, Numan & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Identifying the interaction between stock market returns and trading flows of investor types: Looking into the day using daily data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2733-2749.
    7. Chen, Pei-wen & Huang, Han-ching & Su, Yong-chern, 2014. "The central bank in market efficiency: The case of Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 239-260.
    8. Masayuki Susai & Yushi Yoshida, 2012. "Central bank interventions and limit order behavior in the foreign exchange market," Discussion Papers 56, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
    9. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Information Flows in Foreign Exchange Markets: Dissecting Customer Currency Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 601-634, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Customer order flow Exchange rates Micro-structure Forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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