IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Central bank interventions and limit order behavior in the foreign exchange market

  • Masayuki Susai

    ()

    (Nagasaki University)

  • Yushi Yoshida

    ()

    (Faculty of Economics, Kyushu Sangyo University)

We investigate the intra-day effect of interventions in both the post- global crisis and pre-crisis periods by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in foreign exchange markets using limit order data at intra-day high frequency. First, we find that the relationship between order flow and market return in dollar/yen exchange markets breaks down following unexpected and very high volumes of offer/sell orders by BOJ interventions. Then, a simple methodology of using large recursive residual is proposed to detect the exact timing of interventions. Second, the dataset allows measuring how long an individual limit order stays in the market. With the measured lifetime of limit orders, we find interventions, detected by the proposed methodology, significantly reduce the life-time of limit order in the market. By applying the same methodology on non-intervention days, we find no such evidence on the life-time of limit orders although large recursive residuals are also pervasive in non-intervention days.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ip.kyusan-u.ac.jp/keizai-kiyo/dp56.pdf
File Function: First version, 2012July
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 56.

as
in new window

Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kyu:dpaper:56
Contact details of provider: Postal: 2-3-1 Matsukadai, Higashi-ku, Fukuoka, 813-8503
Phone: 092-673-5290
Fax: 092-673-5919
Web page: http://www.ip.kyusan-u.ac.jp/keizai/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 251, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Thierry Foucault & Ohad Kadan & Eugene Kandel, 2005. "Limit Order Book as a Market for Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1171-1217.
  3. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
  4. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
  5. Klein, Michael W., 1993. "The accuracy of reports of foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 644-653, December.
  6. Hollifield, Burton & Miller, Robert & Sandås, Patrik, 2001. "Empirical Analysis of Limit Order Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2843, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Harris, Lawrence & Hasbrouck, Joel, 1996. "Market vs. Limit Orders: The SuperDOT Evidence on Order Submission Strategy," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(02), pages 213-231, June.
  8. Dagfinn Rime & Lucio Sarno & Elvira Sojli, 2007. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Working Paper 2007/02, Norges Bank.
  9. Thierry, FOUCAULT & Sophie, MOINAS & Erik, THEISSEN, 2003. "Does anonymity matter in electronic limit order markets ?," Les Cahiers de Recherche 784, HEC Paris.
  10. Manganelli, Simone, 2005. "Duration, volume and volatility impact of trades," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 377-399, November.
  11. Andreas M. Fischer, 2005. "On the Inadequacy of Newswire Reports for Empirical Research on Foreign Exchange Interventions," Working Papers 2005-02, Swiss National Bank.
  12. Anusha Chari, 2007. "Heterogeneous Market-Making in Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from Individual Bank Responses to Central Bank Interventions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1131-1162, 08.
  13. Lukas Menkhoff, 2008. "High-Frequency Analysis of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What do we learn?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2473, CESifo Group Munich.
  14. Marsh, Ian W., 2011. "Order flow and central bank intervention: An empirical analysis of recent Bank of Japan actions in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 377-392, March.
  15. Fischer, Andreas M & Zurlinden, Mathias, 1999. "Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions: An Analysis of Transaction Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 662-76, October.
  16. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2002. "Informational integration and FX trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 807-831, November.
  17. Cerrato, Mario & Sarantis, Nicholas & Saunders, Alex, 2011. "An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1892-1906, August.
  18. Michael Melvin & Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling, 2009. "Exchange Rate Management in Emerging Markets: Intervention via an Electronic Limit Order Book," CESifo Working Paper Series 2656, CESifo Group Munich.
  19. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. " An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-89, December.
  20. Payne, Richard & Vitale, Paolo, 2001. "A Transaction Level Study of the Effects of Central Bank Intervention of Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 3085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  22. Fong, Kingsley Y.L. & Liu, Wai-Man, 2010. "Limit order revisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1873-1885, August.
  23. King, Michael & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Timing exchange rates using order flow: The case of the Loonie," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2917-2928, December.
  24. Antonio Scalia, 2006. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some micro-analytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 579, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  25. Cohen, Kalman J, et al, 1981. "Transaction Costs, Order Placement Strategy, and Existence of the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 287-305, April.
  26. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-51.
  27. Foucault, Thierry, 1999. "Order flow composition and trading costs in a dynamic limit order market1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 99-134, May.
  28. Paolo Vitale, 2011. "The impact of FX intervention on FX markets: a market microstructure analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 41-62, 01.
  29. Pasquariello, Paolo, 2007. "Informative trading or just costly noise? An analysis of Central Bank interventions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-143, May.
  30. Corwin, Shane A. & Lipson, Marc L., 2011. "Order characteristics and the sources of commonality in prices and liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 47-81, February.
  31. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kyu:dpaper:56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Yoshitsugu Kitazawa)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.